- Stocks in the United States rose as investors evaluated economic resiliency against the danger of higher interest rates and the impact of the Ukraine conflict.
- As all 11 major industry groupings increased, the S&P 500 advanced, recouping Wednesday's losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 2.2%, the biggest among major indices. Treasury yields continued to fall, with the benchmark 10-year yield increasing as much as 10 basis points to 2.39%. In New York, oil lost roughly 3%, while bitcoin rose to a three-week high.
- While global bond prices have plummeted, stock prices have rebounded to levels reached before the start of the Ukraine conflict. Data released on Thursday showed that applications for state unemployment insurance in the US fell to their lowest level since 1969 last week, while a measure of business activity rose to an eight-month high in early March as demand and production were boosted by fewer COVID-19 restrictions and less severe supply chain disruptions.
- Investors are dumping bonds as the Federal Reserve warns that more rate hikes may be needed to cool the fastest inflation in four decades. If needed, Fed's Powell has expressly stated that a half-point rise in May is on the table, stating that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher borrowing prices.
- Despite warning signals from the bond market, PIMCO believes the tightening cycle will end with the Fed raising its benchmark rate to 2.75% of 2023. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Thursday that he's "comfortable" hiking rates in quarter-point increments, but that he's "open" to a 50-basis-point hike if necessary. Last week, the Federal Reserve lifted the benchmark rate by a quarter-point to 0.50%, the first time it had done so since 2018.
- Oil prices fell in a bumpy day, with futures in New York trading near $112 a barrel as traders weighed the impact of higher trading charges on the major exchanges. As Russia's attacks on Ukraine show no signs of abating, commodities prices have staged wild surges under supply pressures and sanctions.
- On the geopolitical front, the United States unveiled a new round of sanctions aimed at Russian elites, legislators, and defense corporations in an effort to increase pressure on Moscow. The US said it is working with NATO to prepare for future biological or nuclear attacks by Russia, and NATO agreed to increase deployments in the eastern part of the defensive alliance.
- For the first time in almost a month, bitcoin surpassed $44,000, breaking out of its recent narrow trading range amid renewed risk appetite.
- After the Moscow Exchange started abbreviated four-hour trading in 33 of the 50 equities listed on the benchmark, Russian equities climbed more than 4%. On the first day of trading since February 28, Russian government's action to prop up the stock market helped raise equities.