Tuesday 19th December
08:30 ET
US Housing Starts Number
Housing starts represent the number of new residential construction projects that have begun during a specific period. It reflects the health and activity level of the housing market.
An increase in housing starts generally indicates a growing economy, as it suggests rising demand for homes and increased confidence among builders and consumers.
Conversely, a decline in housing starts may signal economic challenges or a slowdown in the real estate market.
What to Expect
A stronger-than-expected result could signal that the consumer is faring well in the face of rate hikes, as housing is one of the largest investments the average consumer can make, and higher housing starts would indicate higher demand for these assets.
Though it is rare this report moves the markets itself, it is a good signal of the current position of the US consumer.
Canadian CPI
The Canadian Consumer Price Index is an economic indicator managed and reported by Statistics Canada, measuring the average price change of a basket of goods and services over time.
This includes items such as housing, food, transportation, and other essential commodities.
The CPI serves as a tool for assessing inflationary trends in the Canadian economy, providing insights into changes in the cost of living for consumers. As with any other country's CPI, a rising index suggests inflationary pressures, while a declining index may indicate deflationary tendencies, influencing economic and monetary policies accordingly.
What to Expect
The Bank of Canada has maintained its view that policy is restrictive, but if more is needed, then more shall be done.
This sentiment heavily relies on inflation behaving as expected.
Therefore, if CPI comes in hotter than expected, then the Canadian dollar may go up and Canadian stocks down over fears of hawkish retaliation from policymakers.
Wednesday 20th December
10:00 ET
US Existing Home Sales
The US Existing Home Sales number represents the total number of previously owned homes that were sold during a specific period.
This data is an indicator of the health and activity level of the existing housing market.
Existing home sales include transactions involving homes that have been previously owned or occupied, as opposed to newly constructed homes.
The metric takes into account completed sales, providing insights into consumer demand, housing affordability, and overall economic conditions. A higher number of existing home sales generally indicates a robust housing market and positive economic conditions.
What to Expect
A stronger-than-expected result could signal that the consumer is faring well in the face of rate hikes, as housing is one of the largest investments the average consumer can make, and higher existing home sales would indicate higher demand for these assets.
Though it is rare this report moves the markets itself, it is a good signal of the current position of the US consumer.
US CB Consumer Confidence
The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is an economic indicator that measures the optimism or pessimism of American consumers regarding the state of the economy.
Released monthly, the index is based on surveys conducted among a representative sample of US households, gathering opinions on current economic conditions, employment, business outlook, and income expectations.
What to Expect
It provides insights into consumers' assessments of both the present economic environment and their future prospects. Shifts in consumer confidence often correlate with changes in spending patterns, impacting overall economic growth.
Though not always a market-mover, it does provide important information about how the consumer is feeling, which is especially important at the current phase of the economic cycle, where the Fed is debating how long interest rates need to remain high.
10:30 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA releases a Weekly Petroleum Status Report that includes information on crude oil inventories in the United States.
This report details the amount of crude oil held in storage facilities and tanks across the country.
Changes in crude oil inventories can have a significant impact on oil prices.
The weekly EIA crude oil inventories report is a key indicator for traders, analysts, and policymakers seeking insights into the dynamics of the US petroleum market.
What to Expect
Increases often signal an oversupply, potentially leading to downward pressure on prices, while decreases may suggest tightening supply conditions, influencing upward price movements
Thursday 21st December
08:30 ET
US GDP
The United States Gross Domestic Product serves as a measure of the country's economic output, encapsulating the total value of all goods and services produced within its borders.
Calculated through approaches such as production, income, and expenditure, GDP provides a snapshot of the nation's economic health and size.
This indicator, released quarterly and annually by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, encompasses diverse sectors and economic activities.
US GDP reflects the nation's economic vitality and remains a fundamental metric for assessing the well-being of the American economy.
What to Expect
A hotter-than-expected figure would indicate that economic growth is more resilient than expected, despite high interest rates.
FOMC officials have noted that they expect to see growth coming down and that this would be in line with their projections for the path back to 2% inflation.
Therefore, a higher-than-expected GDP print could cause strength in the dollar and weakness in the S&P, as markets reprice how long they expect the Fed to keep interest rates high.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims represent the number of individuals who have applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given week, serving as an indicator of labor market dynamics in the United States. A rising number of initial jobless claims may suggest economic challenges or increased unemployment, while a decreasing trend may indicate an improving labor market.
What to Expect
If Initial Jobless Claims fall sharply, it could represent labor picking up in the US, which could be an upside risk to inflation, and show that companies have enough capital to continue hiring, despite a high-interest rate environment, which could warrant rates staying higher for longer than markets anticipate.
However, as this is a weekly report, and is not as detailed as the monthly US Nonfarm Payrolls report, it is unlikely to move the market alone, unless there is a large deviation.
Canadian Retail Sales
Canadian Retail Sales measure the total sales at the retail level in Canada. It reflects the value of goods and services sold by retailers to final consumers. This data provides insights into consumer spending patterns. The retail sales figures encompass a wide range of products, including automobiles, clothing, electronics, and other consumer goods. The data is released monthly by Statistics Canada, the country's national statistical agency. Consistent growth in retail sales is often considered a positive sign for economic expansion, while declines may raise concerns about economic conditions and consumer sentiment.
What to Expect
The Bank of Canada continues to reiterate that if inflation doesn’t come down they may raise rates again. Due to this sentiment, if the data comes in too hot the Canadian Dollar may go up and stocks may go down, as high retail sales pose an increased inflation risk, and the BoC has noted that they would not hesitate to hike again in the event of sticky inflation.
Friday 22nd December
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a measure of inflation that gauges the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the PCE Price Index is considered a key indicator of inflationary trends in the economy.
It is based on personal consumption expenditures, reflecting how households allocate their spending across various categories.
The PCE is closely monitored by policymakers, economists, and the Federal Reserve as it helps inform monetary policy decisions and assess the purchasing power of consumers.
While similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the PCE has some methodological differences, including the treatment of healthcare, the inclusion of a broader range of expenditures, and taking into account varying consumer spending habits.
What to Expect
As the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, market participants will be watching this release closely.
Higher-than-expected inflation could indicate that rates may need to stay higher for longer than markets currently expect. This would be likely to cause weakness in US stocks, and strength in the dollar.
US Consumer Spending
US Consumer Spending refers to the total expenditure made by individuals and households on goods and services within the economy.
It is a crucial component of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and reflects the overall demand for goods and services. Consumer spending encompasses a wide range of purchases, including necessities like food and housing, as well as discretionary items such as electronics and entertainment.
What to Expect
High levels of consumer spending are often associated with a healthy and growing economy, while declines may indicate economic challenges or decreased consumer confidence. Policymakers, economists, and businesses closely monitor consumer spending as it is a key driver of economic activity and plays a significant role in shaping economic trends.
Higher-than-expected Consumer Spending has been cited as an upside inflation risk in the past, however, with the markets believing now that the Fed is done with its rate hiking cycle, participants may be looking for signs of recession risks. A higher-than-expected consumer spending number could indicate a lower chance of recession.
US Durable Goods
US Durable Goods Orders are an economic indicator that measures the new orders placed with manufacturers for long-lasting goods, such as appliances, machinery, and vehicles, intended to last for an extended period.
Published monthly by the US Census Bureau, this data provides insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity.
Changes in durable goods orders can reflect trends in consumer and business spending, as these items typically require significant investment.
What to Expect
An increase in durable goods orders is generally associated with economic expansion, while a decline may signal contraction or decreased business confidence.
Policymakers, economists, and investors monitor this indicator for its implications on manufacturing and economic trends.
10:00 ET
The University of Michigan Sentiment
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a widely followed economic indicator that measures the confidence and optimism of US consumers regarding the economy.
Published by the University of Michigan, this index is based on surveys that assess consumer attitudes toward current economic conditions and expectations for the future.
What to Expect
A higher sentiment reading indicates increased confidence, potentially influencing consumer spending—an essential component of economic activity.
Policymakers, analysts, and businesses monitor this indicator for insights into consumer behavior and economic trends.
Recently, the markets have reacted strongly to deviations in the University of Michigan's 1 and 5-year inflation expectations, as inflation is a key pulse that markets are looking at to determine the future of Fed policy.
Higher than expected inflation expectations could lead to US stock weakness, and dollar strength, and vice versa.
US New Home Sales
US New Home Sales is an economic indicator that measures the number of newly constructed homes sold during a specific time period.
Published by the US Census Bureau, this data provides insights into the demand for newly built homes, reflecting trends in the housing market.
What to Expect
Increasing new home sales may suggest positive economic conditions, while a decline may indicate challenges in the housing sector.
Policymakers, economists, and investors monitor this indicator for its implications on economic growth, consumer confidence, and the overall health of the real estate market.
Going by the results of the last few reports, it would take a large deviation to see a meaningful market reaction from this data.
