Tuesday 14th
08:30 ET
US CPI
The Consumer Price Index serves as a measure of the average change in prices that consumers pay for a specific basket of goods and services over time.
Compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI encompasses a comprehensive range of categories, including housing, food, transportation, healthcare, and various other goods and services.
This economic indicator plays a role in assessing inflationary trends and their impact on consumers' purchasing power and the overall cost of living.
What to Expect
A lower-than-expected CPI would likely strengthen equities and weaken the dollar, signaling to the Federal Reserve that it may not need to raise interest rates further or maintain higher rates for an extended period, as inflation would be falling as they would like it to.
This could boost corporate profits with reduced borrowing costs and lower interest payments on dollar-denominated government bonds.
Wednesday 15th
08:30 ET
US PPI
The Producer Price Index serves as an economic indicator that tracks the average changes over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services.
Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the PPI is categorized into industry-based and commodity-based components, providing comprehensive insights into pricing trends across various sectors such as manufacturing, mining, and services.
As a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, the PPI plays a role in assisting economists, policymakers, and businesses in evaluating the direction of inflationary pressures within the economy.
What to Expect
A lower-than-expected PPI could strengthen equities and weaken the dollar, signaling to the Federal Reserve that inflation on the supply side is dropping, which, as a leading indicator, could have an effect on future CPI or PCE inflation reports.
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales is an economic indicator that measures the total sales of goods and services at the retail level within the United States. It is typically reported on a monthly basis by the US Census Bureau.
Retail Sales data is a key indicator of consumer spending, which is a significant driver of the US economy.
An increase in retail sales is often associated with economic growth, while a decline may signal economic challenges. Policymakers, economists, and businesses closely monitor retail sales as it provides insights into consumer behavior and overall economic health.
What to Expect
Investors are looking for two things. If Retail Sales come in higher than expected, it could increase inflationary pressure, as demand for goods and services can increase inflation, but it could also signal that the consumer is strong, increasing the chances for a soft landing in this tightening cycle.
Last release (October 17th) saw Retail Sales come in higher than expected, which caused strength in the dollar, and weakness in the S&P, as traders priced in the need for potentially more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.
10:30 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Oil
The EIA Crude Oil Inventories is a weekly report published by the US Energy Information Administration that provides information on the crude oil stocks in the United States.
The report details the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms.
It also includes data on the levels of crude oil held at strategic petroleum reserve facilities.
This data will contain numbers from the prior week as well, as the EIA delayed last weeks release due to scheduled maintenance of systems.
What to Expect
High inventories may indicate oversupply and downward pressure on prices, while lower inventories may suggest increased demand and upward pressure on prices, however, this release does not move the market every time, it can take large deviations to have a lasting move on the markets.
Thursday 16th
08:30 ET
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims represent the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during a given week, serving as an indicator of the health of the labor market.
A lower figure typically suggests a strengthening job market, indicating fewer individuals being laid off, while a higher count often points to economic challenges and potential weaknesses in the labor market.
What to Expect
FOMC officials have noted that they may need to see employment come down in order to reduce inflation.
This would imply that a larger number of jobless claims could indicate a higher unemployment rate, which could lead to a lower chance of interest rate increases or higher interest rates for less time than expected, which would be bullish for equities and bearish for the dollar.
It is worth noting that, as a weekly release, this does not move the markets every time, and may take a large deviation from the forecast to have a meaningful impact.
09:15 ET
US Industrial Production
Industrial production represents the total output generated by the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors.
Released by the Federal Reserve in a monthly statistical report, this indicator provides insights into the performance and productivity of the nation's industrial activities.
By tracking changes in industrial production, economists, policymakers, and businesses can assess the overall health of the manufacturing sector and gauge the pace of economic growth.
What to Expect
Fluctuations in industrial production often serve as early indicators of shifts in consumer demand, business activity, and overall economic trends. It often has a muted effect on the markets, but overall, the markets are looking for clues showing changes in demand dynamics, which could have an effect on inflation.
Friday 17th
08:30 ET
US Housing Starts
Housing Starts represent the number of new residential construction projects that have commenced, as reported monthly by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Serving as a gauge of the housing sector's vitality and the broader economic landscape, housing starts data reflects the level of investment in new construction endeavors and the demand for housing units.
What to Expect
Fluctuations in Housing Starts can offer early indications of changes in mortgage rates, consumer sentiment, and overall economic performance. The market reaction is generally muted, but a higher-than-expected Housing Starts number can indicate increased demand for housing, and as housing is one of the largest investments a citizen is likely to make, it can be a good gauge of economic sentiment.
