Tuesday 21st November
08:30 ET
Canadian CPI
Canadian Consumer Price Index is an economic indicator that measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time.
It reflects inflationary pressures in Canada and is used to assess changes in the cost of living.
The Bank of Canada closely monitors CPI when formulating monetary policy.
What to Expect
The Bank of Canada tightening cycle is on hold, on the precondition that inflation does not see too much upside surprise.
According to BoC officials, an upside surprise in inflation could warrant further interest rate increases, if necessary.
A high CPI report would therefore be likely to result in a strong Candian Dollar, as the potential for higher interest rates is bullish for the currency.
10:00 ET
US Existing Home Sales
US Existing Home Sales is an economic indicator that measures the number of previously owned residential properties sold during a specific period.
It provides insights into the health of the housing market and is reported monthly by the National Association of Realtors.
An increase in existing home sales often indicates a robust real estate market, while a decline may suggest challenges in the housing sector.
What to Expect
Existing home sales data is used for assessing overall economic conditions and consumer confidence.
While unlikely to cause any meaningful market reaction on its own without a large deviation from expectations, it is a useful gauge of consumer confidence, as a home is one of the largest investments the average US consumer would make.
Wednesday 22nd November
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims are economic indicators that track the number of individuals filing new claims for unemployment benefits and those continuing to receive benefits, respectively.
They are reported weekly by the Department of Labor and offer insights into the dynamics of the labor market, reflecting trends in layoffs and ongoing unemployment.
A decreasing trend in these claims is generally associated with improving labor market conditions, while an increase may signal economic challenges.
What to Expect
FOMC officials have noted that they may need to see employment come down in order to reduce inflation.
A larger number of jobless claims could indicate a higher unemployment rate, which could lead to a lower chance of interest rate increases or higher interest rates for less time than expected, which would be bullish for equities and bearish for the dollar.
It is worth noting that, as a weekly release, this does not move the markets every time, and may take a large deviation from the forecast to have a meaningful impact.
US Durable Goods
US Durable Goods refers to long-lasting goods, such as machinery, vehicles, and appliances, designed to last for an extended period.
The Durable Goods report, released by the Census Bureau, measures the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for these items.
It is an economic indicator that provides insights into business and consumer spending patterns, reflecting broader economic conditions and manufacturing activity.
What to Expect
Investors look to US Durable Goods to see patterns in consumer spending. Higher consumer spending can create upside inflationary pressures, which could increase the chances of further Fed interest rate increases.
It is worth noting that the last few US Durable Goods reports have not garnered a market reaction.
10:00 ET
Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Eurozone Consumer Confidence reflects the optimism or pessimism of consumers regarding the overall economy and their personal financial situations.
It encompasses various factors, including economic conditions, income levels, the job market, government policies, and global economic trends.
The information is derived from surveys and serves as a tool for policymakers and economists to understand and predict economic trends.
A positive figure signals an optimistic outlook, potentially leading to increased consumer spending and economic growth, while a negative result may suggest a more cautious or pessimistic stance, potentially resulting in reduced consumer expenditures and economic slowdown.
What to Expect
Considering the Eurozone is on the precipice of a recession, with poorly performing GDP seen in big contributors like Germany and France, a low consumer confidence number could result in lower spending trends and less potential for growth.
On the other hand this could bolster bets that the ECB begin cutting rates sooner than previously thought. It is worth noting that this release has not resulted in any major moves in the markets over the last few reports.
10:30 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventories report is a weekly assessment of the changes in the amount of crude oil stored by commercial entities in the United States excluding strategic reserves. This report offers insights into the supply and demand dynamics within the oil market.
What to Expect
A notable increase in inventories may signal oversupply or weakened demand, potentially leading to a decline in oil prices, while a significant drawdown may indicate robust demand or reduced supply, potentially prompting an increase in oil prices.
Friday 24th November
08:30 ET
Canadian Retail Sales
Canadian Retail Sales refer to the total revenue generated by retail establishments in Canada on a monthly basis, serving as a vital indicator of consumer spending and economic health.
Published by Statistics Canada, the data encompasses a broad spectrum of goods and services sold to final consumers, including clothing, electronics, automobiles, and more.
These sales figures are used by investors, policymakers, and economists to provide insights into the overall economic activity and consumer confidence.
What to Expect
Strong retail sales are generally associated with a thriving economy, while declines may suggest economic challenges. As the BoC has stated, they are prepared to raise rates further if price stability doesn't show progress.
Therefore, a lower number can have a bullish impact on Canadian stocks, and the inverse is true for the Canadian dollar.
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI’s
The U.S. S&P Manufacturing and Services PMIs, published by IHS Markit, are key economic indicators providing insights into the health of the manufacturing and services sectors in the United States. The Manufacturing PMI assesses variables such as new orders, production, and employment within the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. Similarly, the Services PMI evaluates the performance of the services sector, encompassing industries like finance and healthcare, and also uses a reading above 50 to signal expansion.
What to Expect
The Fed has made it clear that, if required, they are happy to raise rates further. Therefore, if the readings show 50 or above (signaling expansion), it could require additional tightening. This fear may send US stocks downward and the Dollar up.
