It’s US Employment Data Week!
This week sees the release of four different readings on the employment situation in the US (including the weekly jobless claims numbers)
Employment is closely followed by policymakers to measure whether their policy is restricting economic activity enough or whether continued tightening or a longer period of tighter interest rates will be needed.
Monday 2nd
9:45 AM ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final
The US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final is a monthly economic indicator that measures the health of the manufacturing sector in the United States.
The PMI, which stands for Purchasing Managers' Index, is based on a survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing companies and assesses factors like new orders, production levels, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels.
The "Final" PMI figure is typically released at the end of each month and provides a comprehensive overview of the manufacturing sector's performance.
As a diffusion index, a PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.
It is considered a leading indicator of economic health, with higher PMI values indicating potential economic growth and lower values suggesting economic contraction.
10:00 AM ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly economic indicator that measures the health of the manufacturing sector in the United States. Like it’s S&P counterparty (above) the ISM Manufacturing PMI is based on a survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing firms and assesses factors like new orders, production levels, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
Key differences between the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the S&P Manufacturing PMI include:
Methodology: While both PMIs gauge the health of the manufacturing sector, they use slightly different methodologies and questions in their surveys. These variations can lead to differences in reported results.
Components: The components used to calculate the PMIs may differ, with each organization focusing on different aspects of the manufacturing sector, which can lead to variations in reported data.
Tuesday 3rd
10:00 AM ET
US JOLTS Job Openings
The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is a monthly economic indicator published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
It measures the total number of unfilled job positions available in the US labor market during a specific period. JOLTS provides insights into the demand for labor and the state of job vacancies in the country.
When job openings are high, it may indicate a strong demand for workers and potentially lead to wage growth. Conversely, a decline in job openings may suggest economic challenges or a slowdown in hiring.
This report is the first of four employment reports this week. With this in mind, it is worth remembering that it represents older data (the prior month) compared to the other reports coming out this week but is still looked at by market participants to gauge labor market strength.
Wednesday 4th
8:15 AM ET
US ADP Employment Change
The US ADP Employment Change, published by Automatic Data Processing is a monthly economic indicator that provides an estimate of the change in non-farm private sector employment in the United States. It offers insights into the job market's health by indicating how many jobs were added or lost in the private sector outside of agriculture.
ADP uses its extensive payroll processing data to generate this report, making it a closely watched indicator for employment trends.
While not as comprehensive as the official government non-farm payroll report (released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics), the ADP Employment Change can influence financial markets and economic analysis.
9:45 AM ET
US S&P Services PMI Final
The US S&P Services PMI Final is a monthly economic indicator that measures the health of the services sector in the United States.
The Purchasing Managers' Index is based on a survey of purchasing managers in service sector businesses and assesses factors like new business activity, employment, supplier deliveries, and business expectations.
The "Final" PMI figure, typically released at the end of each month, provides a comprehensive overview of the services sector's performance.
As a diffusion index (like its manufacturing counterpart discussed above), a PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. It is considered a leading indicator of economic health, with higher PMI values indicating potential economic growth and lower values suggesting economic contraction.
10:00 AM ET
US ISM Services PMI
The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index is a monthly economic indicator published by the Institute for Supply Management.
It is often referred to as the US ISM ‘Non-Manufacturing’ PMI.
It measures the health of the non-manufacturing sector in the United States by surveying purchasing managers.
The ISM Services PMI assesses factors like new business orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
Key differences between the US ISM Services PMI and the US S&P Services PMI include:
Methodology: The two PMIs use slightly different methodologies and survey questions, which can lead to variations in reported results.
Components: The components used to calculate the PMIs may differ, with each organization focusing on different aspects of the services sector, potentially leading to differences in reported data.
Despite these differences, both PMIs serve as important economic indicators for assessing services sector activity and economic health in the United States.
US Factory Orders
US Factory Orders is a monthly economic indicator that measures the total value of new orders for durable and non-durable goods from domestic manufacturers.
It is published by the US Census Bureau. Factory orders are a key component of the manufacturing sector, and this data provides insights into trends in demand for manufactured goods.
This indicator includes orders for items such as machinery, equipment, electronics, and consumer goods. Factory orders can indicate shifts in business investment, consumer spending, and overall economic activity.
An increase in factory orders can suggest economic growth, while a decrease may signal economic contraction or reduced business investment.
10:30 AM ET
Weekly EIA Crude oil Inventories
The Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories is a regular report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It provides data on the current levels of crude oil held in storage in the United States.
The data in the report includes information about crude oil inventories at various storage facilities, including commercial tanks, refineries, and pipelines.
Changes in these inventory levels can impact crude oil prices and provide insights into supply and demand dynamics in the energy market. For example, an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories may put downward pressure on oil prices, while a decrease can have the opposite effect. This report is important for assessing the overall health and stability of the energy market.
Thursday 5th
8:30 AM ET
US Trade Balance
The US Trade Balance, often referred to as the trade deficit or trade surplus, is an economic indicator that measures the difference between the value of goods and services the United States exports to other countries and the value of goods and services it imports from other countries.
A trade deficit occurs when the value of imports exceeds that of exports, indicating that a country is buying more from foreign countries than it is selling to them.
Conversely, a trade surplus occurs when exports exceed imports. The trade balance provides insights into a country's international trade relationships and can impact its currency exchange rates, economic growth, and employment levels.
In the context of the United States, a trade deficit (importing more than exporting) has been a recurring feature, often driven by factors such as consumer demand for foreign goods and fluctuations in global economic conditions. It is a closely monitored economic indicator with implications for economic policies and international trade negotiations.
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims: This metric represents the number of new applications for unemployment benefits filed by individuals who have recently lost their jobs. It is reported on a weekly basis by the US Department of Labor.
A higher number of initial jobless claims typically indicates an increase in layoffs or job loss.
Continued Jobless Claims: This figure represents the number of individuals who continue to receive unemployment benefits after their initial claims have been approved. It provides insight into the ongoing unemployment situation. A decrease in continued jobless claims may suggest people returning to work, while an increase can indicate persistent unemployment.
Friday 6th
8:30 AM ET
US Nonfarm Payrolls
US Nonfarm Payrolls is a widely watched economic indicator that reports the total number of jobs added or lost in the United States outside of the agricultural sector during a specific time period, typically on a monthly basis. It is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nonfarm payrolls include jobs in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, healthcare, retail, finance, and more, excluding agricultural employment.
This indicator is a crucial measure of the overall health and performance of the US labor market and economy.
An increase in nonfarm payrolls is generally seen as a sign of economic growth, while a decrease can indicate economic challenges or slowdowns.
Policymakers, economists, and investors closely monitor these figures to assess employment trends and make informed decisions.
US Unemployment Rate
The US Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the labor force that is actively seeking employment but is currently unemployed. It is reported on a monthly basis alongside Nonfarm Payrolls by the US BLS.
The unemployment rate is an important gauge of the overall health of the labor market and the economy.
A higher unemployment rate indicates a larger portion of the workforce is without jobs, while a lower rate suggests more people are employed.
The US Unemployment Rate can deviate from the Nonfarm Payrolls data because they measure different aspects of the labor market:
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of people who are actively seeking employment but are currently jobless. It is a percentage of the labor force and reflects changes in both employment (people finding jobs) and unemployment (people losing jobs or entering the labor force).
Nonfarm Payrolls reports the net change in the total number of jobs in the economy, excluding agricultural employment. It only accounts for the total number of jobs added or lost and does not consider labor force participation changes.
Several factors can lead to discrepancies between these two indicators. For example, changes in labor force participation (people entering or leaving the workforce), seasonal adjustments, and differences in data collection methodologies can all contribute to variations between the Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls.
The Unemployment Rate number is derived from household survey results, while Nonfarm Payrolls take data directly from busineses.
Canadian Employment Change
Canadian Employment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in the total number of people employed in Canada over a specific period, typically on a monthly basis. This indicator provides insights into the health and performance of the Canadian labor market. A positive employment change indicates job growth, while a negative change suggests a decrease in employment.
Canadian Unemployment Rate
The Canadian Unemployment Rate is a crucial economic indicator that measures the percentage of the Canadian labor force that is actively seeking employment but is currently unemployed. It is typically reported on a monthly basis by Statistics Canada.
A higher unemployment rate indicates a larger portion of the workforce without jobs, while a lower rate suggests more people are employed.