In 2021, non-OPEC+ oil production is expected to increase by 710,000 BPD. Global oil demand will hit pre-virus peaks next year before 2022. OPEC+ can add 1.4m BPD output above the July 21 - March 22 target. Iran can produce 1.4m BPD more oil in short order.
US to drive non-OPEC+ oil supply gain of 1.6m b/d in 2022, according to IEA. Saudi output increased by 340,000 BPD in May to 8.48 million BPD. Iranian, Emirati, and Iraqi output was roughly flat in May.
global oil demand will increase by 3.1 million barrels a day in 2022 to 99.5 million barrels per day. OPEC+ production rose by 320,000 BPD in May. OECD oil stocks dropped below the 2015-19 level in April for the first time in more than a year.
IEA cuts 2021 global oil demand growth forecast by 50,000 BPD to 5.4 mln BPD. OPEC+ compliance was at 114% in May. The International Energy Agency reduces its estimate for global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2021 by 300,000 b/d to 99.3 million b/d.
Crude prices rose on bullish oil fundamentals and financial markets over the past month, while backwardation steepened on both benchmark crude futures contracts reflecting anticipation of tighter markets ahead. North Sea Dated rose $3.95/bbl in May to $68.54/bbl and reached $69.84/bbl in the first week of June. Tanker freight costs remained weak overall during May.