Today's Report (12/15/2021)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $639.8 billion, an increase of 0.3% (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 18.2% (±0.9%) above November 2020. Total sales for September 2021 through November 2021 period were up 16.2% (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The September 2021 to October 2021 percent change was revised from up 1.7% (±0.5%) to up 1.8% (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were up 0.2% (±0.4%)* from October 2021, and up 16.1% (±0.7%) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 52.3% (±1.6%) from November 2020, while food services and drinking places were up 37.4% (±3.9%) from last year.


Market Reaction

Following the release, the DXY saw some movement towards the downside whereas the S&P500 whipsawed.


What Is It?

The first report of the month on consumer spending. The US retail sales data reflect the total receipts of the retail sector in the United States over the period under consideration. The retail sales volume changes on monthly basis. The change in the retail sales volume is represented in a percentage form. Not to mention, the retail sales news is an important economic indicator since it helps data analysts to ascertain consumer spending patterns in the coming days.

US Core Retail Sales - Refers to consumer spending, but excludes automobiles sales.

What Are The Fundamental Effects?

The Fed uses the numbers to assess recent trends in consumer purchases. As retail sales surge, then upward pressure on prices may eventually take hold.

Why Is It Important?

Retail sales account for the goods component of consumer spending, with services such as healthcare, education, travel, and hotel accommodation making up the other portion. Retail sales are an important economic indicator because consumer spending drives much of the economy. Retail sales measure the performance of the retail industry. Think of all of the individuals and companies involved in producing, distributing, and selling the goods you use on a daily basis like food, clothes, fuel, and so on. All of this put together represent a large proportion of the US economy.

How Does It Affect The Markets?

CURRENCY - An overall strong retail sale report could spell trouble for the dollar because many of these goods are imported.

STOCKS - Healthy retail sales are good for stocks because they can increase corporate revenues and profits, however weak retail sales or uncertainties can place downward pressure on the USD.

BONDS - Jumps in retail sales could suggest that consumers are in a buying mood, potentially accelerating economic growth. A weak report could set a stage for bond prices to rise.