- The second quarter of 2023 got off to a rocky start for global markets as OPEC+'s surprise agreement to limit oil production fuelled concerns about rising inflation and forced traders to reduce their bets on the Federal Reserve shifting to a more dovish stance.
After the oil cartel announced a drop in output of more than 1 million barrels per day, crude oil futures saw their biggest gain in over a year. The yield on the policy-sensitive two-year note increased by 8 basis points as Treasury prices dropped throughout the curve. In the US premarket session as well as in Europe, energy stocks rose. The European benchmark was barely moved, and American index futures were mainly down, which restrained the broader equities markets.
- The market movements on Monday were in contrast to the widely held belief that boosted asset prices at the end of the first quarter. At the time, investors were betting that the financial turmoil in developed countries would prompt the Fed to stop raising interest rates and instead consider cutting them later this year. These wagers were currently being changed: Money markets increased the likelihood of a quarter-point interest rate increase in May from the previous 55% to 65%.
West Texas Intermediate was expected to have its greatest day since May, while Brent crude was on track for its biggest gain since April 2022.
- BoE's Pill: Although inflation remains excessively high, well-capitalized banks help contain it.
- OPEC+ panel: The voluntary output cuts total 1.66 million bpd.