Today's Report (12/01/2021)

November data from IHS Markit signaled the second-weakest rise in production recorded over the past 14 months as producers reported further near-record supply delays and a slowing of new order inflows to the softest so far this year. Jobs growth also waned amid difficulties filling vacancies.

Longer lead times, supplier shortages, and higher energy prices meanwhile pushed the rate of cost inflation to a fresh series high. Although firms still sought to pass on greater costs to clients, the pace of increase in prices charged slowed to the softest in three months amid signs of push-back to higher prices from customers.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index posted 58.3 in November, down fractionally from 58.4 in October and lower than the earlier release 'flash' estimate of 59.1. The latest reading was the lowest since December 2020. Although remaining well above the 50.0 neutral level, the PMI was boosted in particular by the further near-record lengthening of supplier lead times and increased inventory building. While normally considered positive developments associated with an expanding manufacturing economy, the lengthening of lead times reflected an ongoing supply shock and inventory building often reflected concerns over the future supply situation.

US Markit Manufacturing PMI

What is it?

Provides a broad look at manufacturing activity levels.

What are the fundamental effects?

CURRENCY - Typically with a release of 50 or higher the dollar might bounce higher as it suggests the economy is doing well and inflation is in check.

STOCKS - The Equity market generally reacts positively to a rising PMI, however, if the economy is already in high gear it could suggest an overheating economy and the Federal Reverse might boost interest rates to cool business activity.

BONDS - A release consistently above 50 is typically viewed as bearish for fixed incomes because if the economy is also into an expansionary phase it could aggravate inflation and invite higher interest rates.