Tuesday 16th January 08:30 ET Canadian CPI The Canadian Consumer Price Index is published monthly by Statistics Canada. It gauges the average change in prices paid by consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services, reflecting fluctuations in the overall price level. The basket encompasses various items such as food, housing, transportation, and healthcare, mirroring typical household consumption patterns. The CPI's percentage change from a reference base year informs, notably, the Bank of Canada, as they often employ the CPI as a target for their inflation rate when devising monetary policy. What to Expect If CPI comes in hotter than expected, then you could see CAD strengthen, whereas Canadian stocks may weaken, as it may signal that the BoC may have to rethink their pause in interest rate hikes.
Wednesday 17th January 08:30 ET US Retail Sales US retail sales represent the total revenue generated by retail establishments across various categories, reflecting the monetary value of goods and services sold directly to consumers. Monitored and reported monthly by the US Census Bureau, these figures provide a comprehensive view of consumer spending habits and help assess economic health. Retail sales data encompass diverse sectors, including clothing, electronics, automobiles, and more, serving as a crucial indicator of consumer confidence and overall economic vitality. What to Expect Positive growth in retail sales is typically associated with economic expansion, serving as a barometer for increased consumer spending and confidence, while declines may signal economic contraction or a slowdown in consumer activity. Therefore, if it comes in hotter than expected, the dollar may strengthen, whereas US stocks may weaken. 09:15 ET US Industrial Production U.S. industrial production represents the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within the nation. Tracked by the Federal Reserve through the Industrial Production Index (IPI), this metric offers insights into the real volume of goods and services produced by these industries. The index encompasses manufacturing activities, the extraction of natural resources through mining, and utility services like electricity generation. Changes in industrial production serve as a crucial economic indicator, reflecting shifts in overall economic activity. What to Expect Rising industrial production is typically associated with economic expansion, signaling increased output and demand for goods, while declines may indicate economic contraction or a slowdown. This release typically doesn't have much of an impact on the markets, without ba large deviation from expectations.
Thursday 18th January 08:30 ET US Housing Starts US Housing Starts is an economic indicator that measures the number of new residential construction projects initiated, such as the groundbreaking for new homes and apartment buildings. Published by the US Census Bureau, this data provides insights into the health of the housing market and overall economic activity. What to Expect Increasing housing starts are generally associated with positive economic conditions, while declining starts may indicate challenges in the construction sector. While unlikely to move the markets alone, policymakers, economists, and investors monitor this indicator for its implications on economic growth, employment, and consumer confidence. US Initial & Continued Jobless Claims Initial Jobless Claims,  released by the US Department of Labor, indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It serves as a real-time measure of layoffs and reflects the current state of the job market. Continued Jobless Claims represent the number of individuals who continue to receive unemployment benefits. It offers a snapshot of ongoing unemployment trends and the duration of joblessness. What to Expect Both indicators gauge labor market dynamics, trends in unemployment, and overall economic health. A decrease in initial and continued claims suggests an improving job market, while an increase may indicate economic challenges or contraction. Lower-than-expected unemployment is seen as an inflation risk, as more consumers being paid can lead to more consumer spending, driving up demand and therefore prices. However, the Fed has noted that inflation seems to be coming down to target without a major hit to the labor market, so lower unemployment can also be seen as increasing the chances of a soft landing in the economy. 11:00 ET US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories The US Weekly Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventories report provides information on the nation's crude oil stocks, including changes in inventory levels over the previous week. Published by the US Department of Energy, this report is a key indicator for understanding the supply and demand dynamics in the oil market. Changes in crude oil inventories can impact oil prices and provide insights into market trends. What to Expect An increase in inventories may indicate oversupply or weaker demand, while a decrease may suggest stronger demand or disruptions in supply.
Friday 19th January 10:00 ET US Existing Home Sales US Existing Home Sales is an economic indicator that measures the number of previously owned homes sold month-over-month. Published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), this data provides insights into the health of the housing market and reflects the demand for existing homes. What to Expect Increasing existing home sales are generally associated with positive economic conditions, while declining sales may indicate challenges in the real estate sector. Although unlikely to move the market on its own, policymakers, economists, and investors monitor this indicator for its implications on economic growth, consumer confidence, and the overall health of the housing market. University of Michigan Sentiment Prelim The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is an economic indicator that measures the confidence and optimism of US consumers regarding the economy. Published by the University of Michigan, this preliminary index is based on surveys that assess consumer attitudes toward current economic conditions and expectations for the future. It provides an early snapshot of consumer sentiment before the final monthly release. A higher sentiment reading indicates increased confidence, potentially influencing consumer spending—an essential component of economic activity. What to Expect Policymakers, analysts, and businesses monitor this indicator for insights into consumer behavior and economic trends. A higher consumer sentiment could cause an upside risk to inflation, on the other hand, it also indicates that the consumer is doing well in the face of high interest rates, reducing the risks of a recession
james