Monday 27th November
10:00 ET
US New Home Sales
US New Home Sales is an economic indicator that measures the number of newly constructed homes sold during a specific period.
The data is reported monthly by the US Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development.
New Home Sales provide insights into the strength of the housing market, construction industry, and overall economic activity, as an increase in sales can indicate economic growth and consumer confidence.
What to Expect
While it is uncommon to get a market reaction directly from this data, without a large deviation from expectations, it is an important indicator of consumer health, as a home, especially a new one, is a large investment for the average consumer.
If higher than expected, it could indicate that the consumer is in surprisingly good shape considering the economic backdrop, which could prompt traders to reconsider the future of monetary policy.
Tuesday 28th November
10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence
US CB Consumer Confidence is an economic indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy.
Published by the Conference Board, it reflects consumer perceptions of current and future economic conditions.
A higher index value signifies increased confidence, suggesting potential growth in consumer spending and economic activity.
What to Expect
Consumer Sentiment/Confidence is a double-edged sword.
On the one hand, investors may see higher-than-expected Consumer Confidence as a sign that consumer spending could increase, which would be an upside inflation risk that could warrant further monetary tightening.
On the other hand, higher-than-expected Consumer Confidence could lend to the soft landing narrative, reducing the likelihood of a US recession.
Wednesday 29th November
08:30 ET
US GDP QoQ 2nd Estimate
The US GDP Quarter-over-Quarter 2nd Estimate is a revised calculation of the country's Gross Domestic Product, reflecting the percentage change in economic output from the previous quarter.
This estimate, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, provides a more refined assessment of economic growth, incorporating additional data and adjustments compared to the preliminary estimate.
It is a crucial indicator for assessing the health and performance of the US economy.
What to Expect
FOMC officials have noted that they expect to see a slowdown in growth and that this may be necessary in order to see inflation going down as they expect.
Therefore, a higher-than-expected GDP number would likely indicate to the Fed, and market participants, that more hiking may be needed. This would be bearish for stocks and bullish for the dollar.
On the other hand, if GDP comes in much lower than expected, the markets could turn their attention to hard-landing fears, which could potentially create downward pressure in both stocks and the dollar.
10:30 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventories report provides information on the total stockpile of crude oil held by US commercial firms.
Published every Wednesday, it is a key indicator of supply and demand dynamics in the oil market.
What to Expect
An increase in inventories may suggest oversupply or weak demand, influencing oil prices and impacting the energy sector.
Higher-than-expected inventories correlate to cheaper oil prices, while lower than expected correlates with higher oil prices.
Thursday 30th November
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a measure of average price changes in goods and services consumed by individuals and households.
It is a key inflation indicator used by the Federal Reserve.
The PCE Price Index is considered broader than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as it includes a wider range of expenditures and is used to assess changes in the cost of living for consumers, and the basket of goods measured is flexible (unlike CPI, which uses a fixed basket of goods), in order to reflect goods and services that consumers are actually purchasing.
What to Expect
The markets pay attention to the PCE inflation numbers, most notably, the Core PCE YoY, as this has been mentioned by FOMC officials as their preferred measure of inflation.
Higher-than-expected inflation indicates that the Fed's monetary policy is not working as expected to bring down inflation and could cause market repricing for more Fed rate hikes.
This would be bullish for the dollar, and bearish for stocks.
The inverse is also true, as a lower-than-expected read would likely cement investor expectations that the Fed has peaked in its tightening cycle, which would be bullish for stocks, and bearish for the dolar.
Friday 1st December
08:30 ET
Canadian Employment Change & the Unemployment Rate
The Canadian Employment Change is an economic indicator that measures the net change in the number of employed individuals in Canada over a specific period.
A positive employment change indicates job growth, while a negative change suggests job losses.
The Canadian Unemployment Rate is a metric that represents the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
A lower unemployment rate is generally indicative of a healthier job market, while a higher rate signals economic challenges and job market difficulties.
Both indicators provide insights into the health of the Canadian labor market.
What to Expect
The BoC has 'paused' on their hiking cycle tentatively, saying that if upward pressures on inflation return, they will not hesitate to hike again.
Higher-than-expected employment would be seen as an upside risk to inflation.
Therefore, if the Employment Change came in higher than expected and the Unemployment Rate lower, this would likely cause strength in CAD, and weakness for Canadian stocks, as it would stoke fears of further tightening from the BoC.
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final
The US S&P Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in the United States.
It reflects survey responses from purchasing managers in manufacturing companies and provides insights into factors like production, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries.
The "Final" designation indicates the last revised value of the index for a specific month.
As a diffusion index, a PMI reading above 50 generally indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while below 50 suggests contraction.
What to Expect
Markets will be looking at this for more insight into the employment and demand dynamics within the manufacturing sector.
If the report indicates robust demand for manufactured goods, as well as strong employment in the sector, this could pose an upside risk to inflation, on the other hand, if it goes too far below expectations, markets may be looking to the potential recession fears it could indicate.
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is an economic indicator published by the Institute for Supply Management.
It assesses the performance of the manufacturing sector based on factors like new orders, production, employment, and supplier deliveries.
As a diffusion index, a PMI reading above 50 generally indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while below 50 suggests contraction.
The US S&P Manufacturing PMI, like the ISM PMI, measures the manufacturing sector's health, reflecting survey responses from purchasing managers.
While both indices measure manufacturing activity, they use different methodologies, survey panels, and seasonally adjusted factors.
These differences can lead to variations in reported values and interpretations, providing analysts with multiple perspectives on the state of the manufacturing sector.
What to Expect
Markets will be looking at this for more insight into the employment and demand dynamics within the manufacturing sector.
If the report indicates robust demand for manufactured goods, as well as strong employment in the sector, this could pose an upside risk to inflation, on the other hand, if it goes too far below expectations, markets may be looking to the potential recession fears it could indicate.
