China's demand for natural gas this winter is expected to rise 10% year on year to 180bcm, according to an official with the country's largest oil and gas producer PetroChina on Thursday.
The official told a seminar organised by China's state-backed Chongqing Gas Exchange in Tianjin that Petrochina has secured 106.2bcm of gas supplies for this winter, an increase of 8.4% from the previous year.
Morgan Stanley predicted earlier this week that demand for liquefied natural gas would increase by 25% to 50% by 2030. According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the world appears to have swung into a fuel deficit and requires a new supply of at least 73 million tonnes by 2030. This would cost around $65 billion, on top of the $200 billion in LNG projects approved since 2019.
The IEA states that if the world is to achieve net-zero emission status by 2050, gas demand must peak between 2025 and 2030 and then begin to decline. However, recent LNG and gas trends cast doubt on this. Companies are willing to commit billions of dollars in upfront investments in new production capacity, implying that they expect the inverse of what the IEA predicts. These expectations are echoed by Morgan Stanley's forecast.