Good morning, Traders! Here is the rundown of the key releases dropping for the week ahead.
Tuesday 1st August
03:15 - 04:30 ET
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the current direction of a country's economic trends in the manufacturing or service sectors. It is based on survey data from purchasing managers across industries and provides valuable insights into business conditions, production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries.
We get Final Manufacturing PMI readings for Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK. S&P Global compiles the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI from responses to monthly questionnaires sent to survey panels of manufacturers in over 3000 private sector companies. For the Eurozone, June’s reading of 42.7 is the lowest in three years, dropping from 43.4 the prior month. This reading pointed to a full year of contractions for the manufacturing sector as higher borrowing costs from the ECB continued to bite as a result of rate rises.
UK Nationwide House Prices
The index is calculated based on owner occupier house purchase transactions involving a mortgage. Excluding buy to let and cash purchases. The data is drawn from Nationwide’s house purchase mortgage lending at the post survey approval stage. Price indices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method. Currently, the calculations are based on a 28 WP monthly data series starting in January 1991. Figures are recalculated each month, which may result in revisions to historical data.
What to expect:
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally bullish for GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally bearish for GBP.
German Unemployment Change
Using seasonally adjusted data, the German Statistics Office and the Bundesagentur für Arbeit released the Unemployment Change, which is a measure of the absolute change in the number of unemployed people in Germany.
What to expect:
A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending, as there’s less people working and therefore diminishes economic growth in Germany. Generally, a reading above expected is seen as bearish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as bullish.
German Unemployment Rate
Contrary to the Unemployment Change figure, the unemployment rate is calculated by the Federal Employment Agency based on the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the number of all civilian members of the labour force.
Thursday 3rd August
HCOB Composite/Services PMI’s
Following the slew of Manufacturing PMI’s we receive on Tuesday, Thursday brings us the composite and services figures, both compiled by S&P Global. Like the manufacturing figures, they’re formatted in a diffusion index, with a reading above 50 generally signaling expansion, and a figure below 50 signaling a contraction.
07:00 AM ET
BoE Bank Rate
Following on from July’s inflation data, it’s seeming less and less likely that the BoE will take a 50 bps hike in the August meeting. Below is a statistic from earlier this month, on July 19th.
UK investors shun bets for a 50 bps rate hike from the BoE in August, now seeing around a 65% chance of a 25 bps hike in August - OIS curve.
You can read more about the bank rate in our prep article, posted the day of the release!
Friday 4th August
2:00 AM ET
German Industrial Orders MoM
These figures are calculated monthly by the FSO (Federal Statistical Office) and represent the value of all orders for the delivery of self-made products confirmed by industrial enterprises with 50 or more employees in the reporting period.
As Germany is one of the world's leading exporters and has a highly influential manufacturing industry, fluctuations in industrial orders can offer valuable insights into the health of the country's economy and can impact global trade and financial markets.