Tuesday 15th August
8:30 AM ET
Canadian CPI
The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) functions as a gauge of inflation, revealing the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by Canadian households. It provides valuable insights into shifts in consumer purchasing power and the cost of living. Updated monthly, the CPI assists policymakers and economists in making informed decisions to maintain a stable economic course.
Like the US, The Bank of Canada is also nearing the end of the tightening cycle and would like to see inflation, sustainably come down. Therefore, if CPI comes in lower than expected, stocks would likely go up, and Canadian Dollar would go down.
Wednesday 16th August
8:30 AM ET
US Housing Starts
This release, published by the Census Bureau, tracks the number of new residential construction projects started within the month.
Monitoring housing starts reveals broader economic insights:
Economic Growth: More starts mean more jobs, boosting activity.
Consumer Spending: New homes drive purchases, stimulating spending.
Investor Confidence: Robust starts encourage real estate investment.
Labor Market: High starts suggest job opportunities in construction.
Real Estate Impact: Starts affect property values, shaping markets.
Economic Health: Declines signal weakness or an impending downturn.
Housing Starts can also show changes in demand for housing. If there is a higher number of housing starts, this can indicate higher demand for housing, and vice versa.
What to Expect
Rising interest rates impact US house prices, causing a drop from 19.4% for March 2022 to 2.8% in the recent report representing June 2023 in the Year over Year US House Price Index.
Falling prices could attract homebuyers, boosting demand and new housing starts.
However, higher rates also raise mortgage costs, affecting credit-dependent buyers.
Around 64.8% of homes are bought using mortgages, according to US Census data.
The risk of reduced demand outweighs the potential demand boost caused by lower prices.
9:15 AM ET
US Industrial Production MoM
The total output of goods produced in the United States by the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors is referred to as US industrial production. It is a measure of the physical volume of goods produced, which includes items such as machinery, consumer goods, and raw materials, on a month-over-month basis.
Industrial production is an important economic indicator because it reflects the health and trends of the manufacturing and production sectors, which can provide insights into overall economic activity and potential trends in the broader economy.
10:30 AM ET
EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Crude Oil Inventories Weekly Release is a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration that updates the current levels of stored crude oil in the United States. It's important because it helps track supply and demand trends, influencing oil prices and informing energy-related decisions.
You can expect that a draw in oil would raise WTI, whereas a draw would do the inverse. This is due to increased demand and lessened stock increasing prices.
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The FOMC meeting minutes are official records of the Federal Reserve's policy-making body's discussions and decisions.
They provide information about economic conditions, risks, and policy options, such as interest rates. They can guide financial markets and analysts on the central bank's views and potential policy shifts and are released weeks after meetings.
What to Expect
Following a pause in Interest rate hikes in June, the FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points in July to 5.5%.
Market participants will parse this report for clues on forward guidance on whether the majority of FOMC members want to pause again or indefinitely stop rate hikes in the coming policy meeting on the 20th of September.
Another outcome could reveal that most policymakers think that the persistence of inflation remains and may wish to see interest rates in the US continue to rise.
If the minutes reveal any deviations from current market expectations (88.5% chance of no change, according to CME Fedwatch), there could potentially be a strong market reaction.
Thursday 17th August
8:30 AM ET
US Initial Jobless Claims
The Department of Labor's weekly report shows changes in unemployment insurance filings, indicating the strength of the US labor market. It includes Initial Claims and Continuing Claims, reflecting new and ongoing unemployment insurance requests.
