On Wednesday the 10th of May at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS is set to release the US CPI numbers for the month of April.
Here are some views on what to expect.
According to median analyst estimates, US CPI YoY is expected to remain unchanged at 5%. The highest estimate is 5.2%, with the lowest at 4.7%, the MoM read is forecast to rise to 0.4% from 0.1% in April.
Core CPI YoY is expected to fall moderately to 5.5%, from 5.6%. The highest estimate is seen at 5.6%, with the lowest at 5.3%.
ING
US CPI YoY Forecast: 4.9%
US Core CPI YoY Forecast: 5.5%
Even if Wednesday’s CPI report could show the annual rate falling to below 5%, this still means inflation is running well above the Fed’s 2% target. And, even if market-priced inflation forwards eventually point to the Fed coming close to its target a year from now, the NY Fed’s survey of consumer expectations saw inflation expectations at the medium and longer horizon increase slightly - three years ahead is now at 2.9% and five years ahead at 2.6%.
BlackRock
All eyes are on U.S. inflation data this week. We expect services to keep inflation sticky even as interest rates stay higher. We’re also watching survey data to see how the consumer is holding up. We expect pandemic savings to dwindle and further crimp spending.
HSBC
Ryan Wang
US CPI YoY Forecast: 5%
US Core CPI YoY Forecast: 5.4%
Wells Fargo
We estimate that annual growth in the headline index held steady at 5.0% in April, as higher gas prices likely led the monthly CPI growth rate to pick up to 0.4%. We do not expect that consumers found much relief in core goods and services prices either.
Our forecast suggests that core inflation remained elevated at 0.4% over the month, amounting to a 5.5% annual inflation rate. Although shelter inflation seems to finally be coming off the boil, we believe that March’s stark downshift in rent CPI overstates the pace at which primary shelter inflation will trend downward over the coming months. Separately reported auction data also suggest that vehicle prices remained firm in April.
As we have been saying for some time now, we expect that slowing economic activity will trigger a material deceleration in inflation, but the path back to 2% will be long and bumpy.
JPMorgan
Dr. David Kelly
US CPI YoY Forecast: 4.9%
US Core CPI YoY Forecast: 5.4%
Cleveland Fed Nowcast
Inflation nowcasts from the Cleveland Fed suggest a 0.5% month-on-month increase in core CPI for April. That would hold annual inflation at over 5%. However, after this upcoming CPI reading, things may improve on the most recent nowcast analysis. May’s monthly increase is forecast at 0.3%, and that, compared with sharply rising prices from May 2022 falling out of the series could finally bring annual CPI below 5% for the first time since 20211.
Previous Release
On April 12th at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS released the last US CPI print for the month of March.
This release saw the headline CPI YoY figure show a relatively significant downshift from 6% which was seen in February, to 5%, a larger move down than analysts anticipated.
CPI MoM ticked down as well, from 0.4% in February, to 0.1% - also a larger drop than analysts anticipated.
However, the Core CPI YoY (ex-food and energy), ticked up modestly to 5.6%, from 5.5%, in line with analyst expectations, and the Core MoM read ticked down slightly to 0.4%, from 0.5%, also as expected.
Inflation cooling off more than expected in the headline numbers, and coming in as expected on the 'core' numbers, was enough to cause a large amount of strength in the S&P 500, and significant weakness in the Dollar and the US 2-Year Bond Yields.
This was the last inflation print before the May FOMC meeting and subsequent interest rate decision, so the markets were closely scrutinizing this data for signs of change in the Fed's policy movements.
At this time, markets pared back on bets for a 25 bps hike at the May meeting, and increased bets for no change - which acted as the catalyst for this large market reaction.
However, the Fed pulled the trigger on another 25 bps hike at this meeting anyway, and signaled the possibility of a pause at the next meeting on the 14th of June.
As of Tuesday, May 9th, CME's Fedwatch tool sees an 83.4% chance of this pause becoming a reality.
If inflation proves persistent, we may see this change, as the Fed may be willing to continue with its historically sharp tightening campaign.
