- Concerns that conflict risks are growing roiled global markets, causing stocks to fall and the dollar to rise alongside bonds. Oil rose beyond $115 per barrel on rumours that the US is mulling a ban on Russian crude imports in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine.
- The S&P 500 index fell for the fourth time in five days, while commodities saw their greatest weekly gain since 1974 as Russia's growing isolation cuts off a significant supplier of supplies, raising fears of persistent shortages and rising prices. The White House is weighing whether an oil embargo would genuinely harm Russia's economy, or if it would just be diverted to other markets, rising gasoline costs. The dollar rose to its highest level since 2020, while 10-year rates fell to around 1.7%. The euro is approaching a critical support level that dates back to the currency's foundation in 1999.
- S&p dow jones indices will drop Russian stocks from its indexes, joining a growing list of global index compilers who have shunned the country. Three large Russia-focused ETFs were halted on Friday after the NYSE took action based on "regulatory concern," according to the exchange. After the government in Kyiv claimed that Vladimir Putin's troops set fire to Europe's largest atomic power facility in a shelling attack, a top nuclear official called for talks with Russia and Ukraine. JPMorgan Chase economists believe the war will affect Russia's economy as much as the country's disastrous default in 1998.
- If Russian crude is mainly rejected, oil might hit $150 a barrel in the next three months, according to Damien Courvalin, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs. Higher commodity prices have the potential to stifle growth and inflame inflation, posing a quandary for central bankers around the world as they weigh the need to raise borrowing costs against the risk of stalling the recovery.
- Fed Powell's argument to keep the Federal Reserve's rate hike this month to a quarter percentage point was bolstered by pay stagnation despite strong hiring in February's jobs report. Despite the fact that companies added 678,000 jobs and unemployment decreased to 3.8% in January, average hourly earnings remained unchanged. That means central bankers aren't in the midst of a wage-price spiral akin to the 1970s, reducing the desire to take more drastic measures to combat inflation.
- Fed's Evans said that the central bank should raise interest rates to near "neutral" levels this year, implying up to seven quarter-point hikes.
