- Global stocks mounted a ferocious comeback from the war-induced sell-off, with European equities posting the greatest gain since the pandemic's low in March 2020 and US stocks gaining the most since June of that year. Oil prices plummeted by more than 10%, and treasuries plummeted as well.
- On suspicion that two weeks of selling adequately reflected the global economic effect of rising sanctions on Russia, dip buyers propelled the S&P 500 up 2.6% and Germany's Dax index up 7.9%. In New York, oil fell to $110 per barrel, and the 10-year Treasury rate surged back above 1.9%.
- Nonetheless, the rallies were only able to recoup a portion of the losses suffered since Russia invaded Ukraine. The DAX entered a bear market earlier this week, while the S&P 500 is still trading at a 10% discount to where it began the year. In the last two weeks, WTI has gained about $20 per barrel, and other commodities such as nickel and wheat have remained at historic highs.
- Fears of a worldwide inflation shock from a commodity-price spike spurred by Russia's isolation have roiled markets, while supply disruptions threaten to usher in a period of slower global growth. On Wednesday, a top foreign policy advisor to Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the government is willing to address Russia's demand for neutrality as long as security guarantees are provided.
- The stock market rally in the United States began on the 13th anniversary of the S&P 500's bottoming out during the financial crisis. In this bull market, the gauge has risen more than 500%, with an annual return of almost 15%.
- According to the US, Russian soldiers have increased their bombing of Kyiv, Ukraine's capital. The trading freeze on the Russian stock market has been prolonged in order to prevent prices from plummeting in the aftermath of massive international sanctions.
- Oil fell as the United Arab Emirates and Iraq hinted that the OPEC may be more willing to increase output. In recent days, petroleum has seen massive intraday movements as Russia's invasion of Ukraine threatens a big global supply shock. Wednesday's drops in crude and gas are reversing some of the most important deals seen since the outbreak of the war.
- The difficulty of inflation and the growth dilemma that central banks face is highlighted by commodity prices. The European Central Bank meeting on Thursday may reflect caution, since the crisis in Ukraine has thrown the continent's economic outlook into disarray, and bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike have been pushed back in recent weeks, with a quarter-point hike now largely predicted. Nonetheless, economists are now predicting that inflation in the United States will peak anywhere between 8% and 9% this month or next, based on data due on Thursday that will incorporate pre-war prices.
