- Global markets remained volatile as investors examined geopolitical developments, with US stocks struggling to retain gains that had reached 1% earlier in the day. After a recent spike that sparked inflation fears, oil briefly fell below $100 per barrel. Treasury 10-year rates have risen to their highest level since the beginning of 2019.
- The s&p 500 fell into a death cross, a technical pattern that has previously signaled additional weakness, after a morning surge in stocks fuelled by prospects of a new round of talks between Russia and Ukraine stalled.
- For the first time since March 2020, the Nasdaq 100 index closed in a bear market, with the tech-heavy index down more than 20% from its high. Following a Chinese government-imposed lockdown, one of Apple's suppliers suspended operations at its Shenzhen locations. A measure of the Asian nation's stocks listed in the US fell by 12%.
- According to people familiar with the situation, the White House is considering sending President Biden to unidentified European destinations as Russia's war on Ukraine continues. Ukraine's president, Zelensky, will deliver a rare wartime address to both chambers of Congress via video conference, pleading with US lawmakers for additional aid as Russian bombs hit his cities.
- Traders have raised their expectations for the amount of Fed policy tightening that may occur this year, pushing to fully price in seven standard quarter-point rate hikes at one point on Monday. The last time the market for overnight index swaps linked to Fed meeting dates fully priced that much tightening was on February 11, the day after the US' consumer-price inflation numbers for January came in higher than expected, prompting investors to bet on more hawkish central bank policy.
- The Federal Reserve will begin a multi-month battle to combat inflation this week, with Fed's Powell possibly moving even more aggressively after Russia's war in Ukraine pushed up prices even higher. Powell and colleagues must now cope with the economic consequences of the war, which threatens to inflict the twin blows of poorer growth and even faster inflation. They are already pivoting to tightening monetary policy amid the fastest inflation in four decades.
