- Stocks rose in a choppy day, as the dollar sank and treasuries fluctuated, a day after a bond-market indicator signaled anxiety that the economy would break under the weight of the Fed's most aggressive rate-hike campaign in two decades. oil surged.
- The S&P 500 notched its biggest three-day rally since November 2020. JPMorgan processed funds meant for interest payments due on dollar bonds issued by Russia and transferred the money to Citigroup, according to a major newswire. According to credit-default swap prices, the implied probability of a Russian default within the year has decreased. Stocks had fallen earlier in the day as Moscow poured cold water on rumors of progress in the Ukraine peace negotiations.
- Global markets are keeping a close eye on Russia's capacity to repay its debt. Concerns have been raised about creditors not receiving the amount in dollars by the end of the 30-day grace period, which would be the first default on foreign-currency bonds since the Bolsheviks renounced the Czar's debts in 1918. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesperson for the Kremlin, said the country has all the resources it needs to avoid default.
- The US House of Representatives decisively decided to cease regular trade relations with Russia, allowing the US to sharply raise tariffs on Russian goods entering the nation. On Friday, Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will discuss Russia. On Thursday, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told reporters that Biden will make it clear to Xi that if China backs Russia, the US will impose "costs."
- Stock investors shouldn't be too concerned about the Fed's plan to tighten policy if history is any guide. Officials hiked interest rates 17 times between June 2004 and June 2006, with the S&P 500 gaining around 12% during that time. The era of monetary tightening from 2015 to 2018 was even better for risk assets, with the index rising by nearly 21%.
