US stocks rose as investors awaited Tuesday's consumer price index reading. US treasuries finished lower on Monday, erasing earlier gains.
The S&P 500 gained 1.4%, its best day in nearly two weeks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained more than 1% as well. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year rate hovering around 3.61%. The dollar gained ground.
All eyes will be on the consumer price index reading in the United States on Tuesday, which is expected to show that prices, while still high, are slowing. According to JPMorgan's sales and trading desk, a softer CPI reading could lead to a 10% rally in the S&P 500. According to their analysis, the chances of that happening are about 5%. Following a lower inflation reading, the index rose 5.5% in November, its best post-CPI day ever.
A weaker CPI print would justify the Fed's planned half-point move on Wednesday and shed light on whether markets can expect rate cuts in late 2023. While central bank officials have indicated that the pace of rate hikes will slow, they have also stated that borrowing costs will need to remain restrictive for some time.