- At the close of a tense week defined by tensions between the west and Russia, as well as concerns about the Federal Reserve's future policy actions, stocks fell and bonds rose.
- Swings in the stock market accelerated ahead of the close, with Friday's $2.2 trillion options expiry compounding the trend. The S&P 500 index momentarily went positive before resuming its downward trend, dragged down by technology, energy, and industrial stocks. Traders also reduced their risk exposure ahead of Monday's US holiday.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index has formed a "death cross," a technical pattern that has previously signalled additional deterioration. Treasury 10-year yields approached 1.9 percent, as oil prices recovered some of their losses after falling as high as 3% earlier in the day. Bitcoin was trading at its critical psychological level of $40,000.
- The United States claims that Russia has massed up to 190,000 troops in and around Ukraine, calling it the largest military buildup since World War II. This week, Russia informed the US that it has no plans to attack. Citing the increase of violence in Ukraine's breakaway Donbas area, Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Kiev to "sit down at the negotiating table" with separatist leaders and "agree on political, military, economic, and humanitarian measures to resolve the crisis." Kiev's leadership has refused to negotiate with separatists backed by Russia.
- One of the Fed's most dovish members advocated for a "significant" policy shift while downplaying the necessity for rapid tightening, while another argued against a half-point boost next month. The remarks on Friday from Fed's Evans and his Fed's Williams implicitly reaffirmed the message that the US central bank will raise rates by a quarter point at its March meeting, even as core officials remain open-minded about how high rates will need to go in the long run.
- Treasuries are reasserting their haven status and overtaking the appeal of riskier assets, a problematic combination for Bank of America strategists, after their worst start to a year in decades. According to a BoFa note citing EPFR worldwide data for the week ending Wednesday, u.s. sovereign debt generated $7.4 billion in inflows, the biggest since the coronavirus pandemic first struck.
