On Friday, April 1st, at 8:30 AM ET - the Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the US Nonfarm Payrolls and US Unemployment Rate data, here is what some analysts expect:
Wells Fargo
Job growth has been surprisingly strong and steady in recent months, with nonfarm payrolls growing an average of 582K in the past three months. The resilient pace of hiring has been facilitated by workers flowing back into the labor force, as constraints around COVID have eased and financial needs have risen.
We expect payroll growth to have moderated to around 450K in March. However, seasonal factors look less supportive of headline job growth compared to January, while the bounce back from Omicron-hiring delays was likely confined to February. More generally, labor demand does not appear to be rising as rapidly as last year, with hiring plans among small businesses falling to a one-year low in February.
Job growth should be sufficiently strong to drive the unemployment rate another notch lower to 3.7% in March. Average hourly earnings growth is likely to rebound 0.4% after stalling in February, pushing the year-ago rate to 5.5%. However, that would still put the recent trend in wages on a somewhat softer path as the supply of and demand for workers inches toward better balance.
JPMorgan
Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast: 550K
Unemployment Rate Forecast: 3.7%
The labor market is seeing dramatic excess demand, with 5 million more job openings than unemployed workers. This, in combination with solid GDP growth, should lead to strong job gains in 2022 with the unemployment rate likely falling significantly from February’s 3.8% reading.
WSJ Poll
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal are expecting it to show nonfarm payrolls up by 490,000, and the unemployment rate declining to 3.7%.
Barclays
Nonfarm payrolls Forecast: 550K
Unemployment Rate Forecast: 3.8%
Bank of America
Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast: 525K
Unemployment Rate Forecast 3,7%
Deutsche Bank
Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast: 400K
Unemployment Rate Forecast: 3.7%
Previous NFP Report and Market Reaction
The last nonfarm payrolls report was released on March 4th at 8:30 AM ET, showing 678K (compared to a median forecast of 423K)
This data lead to an initial weakening in the DXY, before strengthening, upside movement on the S&P500 and the US 10-Y yield, as well as some whipsawing in Gold.
