Tuesday 15th August
02:00 AM ET
UK Unemployment Change
What is it?
The unemployment change figure is released each month and tracks the change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month. It’s released by the ONS (Office for National Statistics) and is important due to the UK’s large expenditure on benefits.
What to expect:
If the figure is high, more money is required to be pooled out of the government’s spending pool. The number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in the United Kingdom rose by 25.7 thousand in June 2023, following a revised 22.5 thousand decline the month before.
UK Unemployment Rate
What is it?
The ILO (International Labour Organisation) unemployment rate is also released by the ONS and measures the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force.
What to expect:
If the figure is higher than expected, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labour market, weakening the GBP. On the other hand, a decrease shows economic and labour market strength, leading to an increase in GBP.
05:00 AM ET
German ZEW Data
What is it?
- Economic sentiment -
Economic sentiment, among the other ZEW releases, is calculated from the results of the ZEW Financial Market Survey, which is treated as a precursor to the IFO Sentiment Survey. The data is released around the middle of the month for the current month, providing a measure of analysts’ views of current economic conditions as well as a gauge of expectations for the coming six months.
- Current Conditions -
Current conditions is a summary of the net percentage of positive and negative responses regarding the expectations for economic growth in the next six months. It’s measured in a way so that if 50% of those questioned believe that the economic situation will get better and 20% believe it will get worse, the figure would be +30.
What to expect:
- Economic Sentiment -
A reading that is stronger than expected is generally bullish for the Euro, while a weaker than expected reading is generally bearish.
- Current Conditions -
A reading stronger than forecast should be taken as positive for the EUR, whilst a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative.
Wednesday 16th August
02:00 AM ET
UK CPI
What is it?
The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price of goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of UK households. It’s the BoE’s preferred measure of inflation, therefore holding a lot of weight. Due to this, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business’ and consumers.
What to expect:
If the reading is higher than expected or not going down as drastically, there is high chance that the BoE will continue at their same pace of tightening, therefore increasing rates further. Due to this, GBP will see a bullish reaction, due to the promise of a currency that can earn investors more interest. At the same time, stocks will see a decline due to the prospect of increased borrowing prices for businesses and bonds will gain higher yields and lower prices.
UK Core CPI
What is it?
Core CPI is yet another gauge of inflation, being accrued using the same methodology as the headline figure. Though, the key difference is that Core will exclude volatile components that may sway the inflation reading in a skewed way.
What to expect:
Aside from the key difference in what it excludes, the reactions from the market will be the same.
05:00 AM ET
Eurozone GDP Flash
What is it?
Gross Domestic Product is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, in this case Eurozone. GDP is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. In this case, it is the Flash estimate, which is limited to only measuring quarterly and annual growth statistics for the region as a whole, it also only relies on partial data, providing no information on the GDP expenditure components.
What to expect:
Being the most effective gauge of economic growth, GDP carries a lot of weight with it. If GDP growth is positive, stocks and currencies will bounce higher as there is more spending occurring in the economy, leading to more cash flow and higher business profits. Bonds will generally react negatively to high growth as there is more chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation.
Friday 18th August
02:00 AM ET
UK Retail Sales
What is it?
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data also includes e-commerce for British online retailers. The data is derived from a monthly survey of 5000 businesses in the UK, including 900 of the largest retailers and a representative panel of smaller businesses. The report also includes sales data in both sterling and volume.
What to expect:
The pattern of consumer spending is often the primary influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong growth translates into healthy corporate profits and, therefore, an increase in stock prices. As for bonds, the primary concern is whether the growth will be too drastic and lead to inflationary pressures. For currency, a higher than expected reading should be taken as bullish for GBP, with a lower than expected reading being bearish.
UK Core Retail Sales
What is it?
Core retail sales are accrued using the same methodology as the headline figure, though, as with Core CPI, it excludes the volatile aspects of the economy. In this case, the primary exclusion is auto fuel.
05:00 AM ET
Eurozone CPI Final
What is it?
The Consumer Price Index for Eurozone is compiled by Eurostat, following the same methodology as that of the UK.
What to expect:
As with other countries, the central bank will determine it’s rate decision making on the inflation rate, with the reaction from the markets following suit.
