Tuesday 19th September
05:00 AM ET
Eurozone CPI
What is it?
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.
What to expect:
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Wednesday 20th September
02:00 AM ET
UK CPI
What is it?
The consumer price index (CPI) is an average measure of the level of the prices of goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households in the UK. It is calculated using the same methodology developed by Eurostat, the European Union's statistical agency, for its harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP). The CPI is the Bank of England's target inflation measure.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Thursday 21st September
07:30 AM ET
BoE Bank Rate
What is it?
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate.
What to expect:
The pound might rally if the BoE is showing an inclination to raise interest rates. Higher rates might dampen inflation pressures, but rate hikes also increase the cost of doing business and could cut profit margins, effecting stock prices. Investors might flee the long bonds if rates rise as it could confirm that inflation is on the rise and they may instead chase the shorter-term securities.
You can see more regarding the rate decision in our rate prep, posted the day of the release!
Friday 22nd September
02:00 AM ET
UK Retail Sales
What is it?
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data include all internet business whose primary function is retailing and also cover internet sales by other British retailers, such as online sales by supermarkets, department stores and catalogue companies. Headline UK retail sales are reported in volume, not cash, terms but are available in both forms. The data are derived from a monthly survey of 5,000 businesses in Great Britain. The sample represents the whole retail sector and includes the 900 largest retailers and a representative panel of smaller businesses, including internet sales. Collectively, all of these businesses cover approximately 90% of the retail industry in terms of turnover.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
03:15 - 04:30 AM ET
Euro-Area and UK PMI
What is it?
Between the above hours we get PMI for Eurozone, Germany, France and the UK. Split into three numbers, the Purchasing Managers Index measures the growth of the Manufacturing and Services sectors, as well as a combined composite reading. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the currency, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the currency.
