Monday 25th September
04:00 AM ET
German IFO data:
- Expectations
What is it?
German Business Expectations rates the expectations of businesses in Germany for the following six months. It is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
- Current Conditions
What is it?
The German Current Assessment rates current business conditions in Germany, without considering future expectations. It is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
- Business Climate
What is it?
The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. The index is compiled by the IFO Institute for Economic Research.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Thursday 28th September
08:00 AM ET
German CPI
What is it?
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.
What to expect:
As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. A higher figure would suggest bullishness for the EUR, with the opposite suggesting bearishness.
Friday 29th September
02:00 AM ET
UK GDP
What is it?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of a country’s industrial output over a given period. It consists of the aggregate domestic production of goods and services by individuals, businesses, and government. Quarterly publications provide a much more detailed picture of the economy than the monthly indicators, covering all of gross domestic product (GDP), sector accounts, business investment, balance of payments, consumer trends, and profitability of UK companies.
What to expect:
Low levels of growth are negative to most asset classes and are common to recessionary cycles. Currency, equities, and commodities markets all exhibit enhanced degrees of volatility surrounding the GDP release.
02:45 AM ET
French PPI
What is it?
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
03:55 AM ET
German Unemployment Change
What is it?
The Unemployment Change released by the Bundesagentur für Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office is a measure of the absolute change in the number of unemployed people in Germany using seasonally adjusted data.
What to expect:
A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending, as there’s less people working and therefore diminishes economic growth in the country. Generally, a reading above expected is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).
German Unemployment Rate
What is it?
The unemployment rate is calculated by the Federal Employment Agency based on the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the number of all civilian members of the labour force (dependant civilian employed persons, the self-employed family workers and unemployed). Unemployed is defined as persons between the ages of 15 and 65 and who are without employment or only with short-time employment (currently less than 15 hours per week) and seeking employment of at least 15 hours per week subject to compulsory insurance.
What to expect:
If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall.
05:00 AM ET
Eurozone CPI
What is it?
Changes in the index provide an estimate of inflation, as targeted by the European Central Bank (ECB). Eurostat provides statistics for the EU and Eurozone aggregates, individual member states and for the major subsectors. Over the short-term, the central bank focuses on a number of core measures which seek to strip out the most volatile components and so give a much better guide to underlying developments. Amongst these, financial markets normally concentrate upon the narrowest gauge which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco.
What to expect:
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
