Tuesday 31st October
02:30 AM ET
French GDP QoQ Prelim
What is it?
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The flash estimate, released a relatively short 4-5 weeks after the end of the reference quarter, is an effort to speed up delivery of key economic data. In contrast to most European flash releases, the French version provides an early look at the GDP expenditure components.
What to expect?
Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
03:45 AM ET
French HICP YoY Prelim
What is it?
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, is the same as CPI, but with a joint basket of products for all Eurozone member countries.
What to expect:
The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during a recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
French PPI YoY
What is it?
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
05:00 AM ET
Italian GDP Prelim
What is it?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
German GDP Flash
What is it?
A higher real GDP improves the standard of living for Germans, however, a GDP growth due to inflation erodes living standards because people pay more for the same. The GDP can be used as a report card for the Govt. and Bundesbank to view how well or poorly their policies are working. The GDP reflects the final value of all output in the German economy, regardless of whether a product was sold or placed in inventory.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
06:00 AM ET
Eurozone CPI Flash
What is it?
The consumer price index (CPI) is an average measure of the level of the prices of goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households in the Eurozone..
What to expect:
Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Eurozone GDP Prelim Flash
What is it?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole. The prelim flash report is limited to just quarterly and annual growth statistics for the region as a whole. This is issued close to the end of the month immediately after the reference period
What to expect:
When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall.
Wednesday November 1st
05:30 AM ET
UK Mfg PMI Final
What is it?
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Thursday November 2nd
04:55 AM ET
German Unemployment Change SA
What is it?
The Unemployment Change released by the Bundesagentur für Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office, is a measure of the absolute change in the number of unemployed people in Germany using seasonally adjusted data.
What to expect:
A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending, as there’s less people working and therefore diminishes economic growth in the country. Generally, a reading above expected is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).
German Unemployment Rate
What is it?
The unemployment rate is calculated by the Federal Employment Agency based on the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the number of all civilian members of the labour force (dependant civilian employed persons, the self-employed family workers and unemployed). Unemployed is defined as persons between the ages of 15 and 65 and who are without employment or only with short-time employment (currently less than 15 hours per week) and seeking employment of at least 15 hours per week subject to compulsory insurance.
What to expect:
Generally, a reading above expected is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).
08:00 AM ET
BoE Bank Rate
What is it?
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate.
What to expect:
The pound might rally if the BoE is showing an inclination to raise interest rates. The relationship between stock prices and the BoE interest rate is quite direct when rates rise or hinted that they will be. Higher rates might dampen inflation pressures, but rate hikes also increase the cost of doing business and could cut profit margins. Investors might flee the long bonds if rates rise as it could confirm that inflation is on the rise and they may instead chase the shorter-term securities.
Thursday November 3rd
05:30 AM ET
UK Composite PMI Final
What is it?
The Composite PMI Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in both sectors (manufacturing and services). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
What to expect:
The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
06:00 AM ET
Eurozone Unemployment Rate
What is it?
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.
What to expect:
These data points give a comprehensive report on the state of the economy and its future direction. A rising unemployment rate can be a warning sign of hard times, while a low rate can be a warning of inflation as wages are bid up to attract labor.
