Wednesday November 29th
08:00 ET
German CPI
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the currency, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the currency.
Thursday November 30th
02:45 ET
French GDP Final
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The flash estimate, released a relatively short 4-5 weeks after the end of the reference quarter, is an effort to speed up delivery of key economic data. In contrast to most European flash releases, the French version provides an early look at the GDP expenditure components.
What to expect
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
French HICP Prelim
The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.
What to expect:
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
03:55 ET
German Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is calculated by the Federal Employment Agency based on the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the number of all civilian members of the labour force (dependant civilian employed persons, the self-employed family workers and unemployed). Unemployed is defined as persons between the ages of 15 and 65 and who are without employment or only with short-time employment (currently less than 15 hours per week) and seeking employment of at least 15 hours per week subject to compulsory insurance.
What to expect:
Unlike in the U.S. no wage data are included in this report. But by tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall.
German Unemployment Change
The Unemployment Change released by the Bundesagentur für Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office is a measure of the absolute change in the number of unemployed people in Germany using seasonally adjusted data.
What to expect:
A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending, as there’s less people working and therefore diminishes economic growth in the country. Generally, a reading above expected is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).
05:00 ET
Eurozone Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.
What to expect:
Unemployment data is closely monitored by the financial markets. These data give a comprehensive report on the state of the economy and its future direction. A rising unemployment rate can be a warning sign of hard times, while a low rate can be a warning of inflation as wages are bid up to attract labor.
Eurozone CPI
The consumer price index (CPI) is an average measure of the level of the prices of goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of European households.. It is calculated using the same methodology developed by Eurostat, the European Union's statistical agency, for its harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP).
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Friday December 1st
03:50-04:30 ET
Euro-Area and UK Mfg PMI
Based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies, the Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMI) offers an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as output, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across manufacturing industries. The final index for the current month is released roughly a week after the flash.
What to expect:
The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
