Monday December 18th
04:00 ET
German IFO
- Expectations
German Business Expectations rates the expectations of businesses in Germany for the following six months. It is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.
- Current Conditions
The German Current Assessment rates current business conditions in Germany, without considering future expectations. It is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.
- Business Climate
The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. The index is compiled by the IFO Institute for Economic Research.
The results are released the same month as the survey is taken. More than 7000 businesses are surveyed
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Tuesday December 19th
05:00 ET
Eurozone CPI Final
The CPI is a measure of consumer prices used to calculate inflation. Changes in the index provide an estimate of inflation, as targeted by the European Central Bank (ECB). Eurostat provides statistics for the EU and Eurozone aggregates, individual member states and for the major subsectors. Over the short-term, the central bank focuses on a number of core measures which seek to strip out the most volatile components and so give a much better guide to underlying developments. Amongst these, financial markets normally concentrate upon the narrowest gauge which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco.
What to expect:
Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Wednesday December 20th
02:00 ET
UK CPI
The consumer price index (CPI) is an average measure of the level of the prices of goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households in the UK. It is calculated using the same methodology developed by Eurostat, the European Union's statistical agency, for its harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP). The CPI is the Bank of England's target inflation measure.
What to expect:
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Friday December 22nd
02:00 ET
UK Retail Sales
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data include all internet business whose primary function is retailing and also cover internet sales by other British retailers, such as online sales by supermarkets, department stores and catalogue companies. Headline UK retail sales are reported in volume, not cash, terms but are available in both forms. The data are derived from a monthly survey of 5,000 businesses in Great Britain. The sample represents the whole retail sector and includes the 900 largest retailers and a representative panel of smaller businesses, including internet sales. Collectively, all of these businesses cover approximately 90% of the retail industry in terms of turnover.
What to expect
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
UK GDP
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of a country’s industrial output over a given period. It consists of the aggregate domestic production of goods and services by individuals, businesses, and government.
What to expect
High levels of GDP growth are viewed as being positive for U.K. indices as well as the GBP.
Low levels of growth are negative to most asset classes and are common to recessionary cycles. The Bank of England (BOE) places a great deal of emphasis on monthly and yearly GDP. Robust growth is often a prelude to monetary tightening, while stagnate levels provide an environment conducive to Quantitative Easing (QE).Traders monitor GDP (MoM) releases closely. Abnormal reports may cause rapid buying or selling of the U.K. indices or GBP. Currency, equities, and commodities markets all exhibit enhanced degrees of volatility surrounding the GDP release.
02:45 ET
French PPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
What to expect
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
