Tuesday 5th December
09:45 ET
US S&P Services PMI Final
The US S&P Services Purchasing Managers' Index is an economic indicator that assesses the performance of the services sector in the United States.
It is based on a survey of purchasing managers in service-oriented businesses and measures factors such as business activity, new orders, and employment.
The "Final" designation indicates the last revised value for a specific month.
As a diffusion index, a PMI reading above 50 generally indicates expansion in the services sector, while below 50 suggests contraction.
What to Expect
Fed policymakers have noted that service inflation remains persistent.
Therefore, if this index continues into 'expansion' (a reading above 50), and is also higher than expected, markets may see this as a sign that interest rates in the US need to stay higher for longer to reduce demand and employment in the services sector, which are an upside inflation risk.
This would cause potential weakness in US stocks and strength in the dollar.
However, markets are also looking for signals of a soft landing, and a healthy services sector could also indicate that the economy is less likely to fall into a recession during this tightening cycle.
10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI
The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index, like the S&P Services PMI, is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector.
However, they are published by different organizations and use different methodologies.
The US ISM Services PMI is based on a survey of ISM member company purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector, as opposed to exclusively the services sector, like S&P.
This means that the surveys themselves differ between ISM and S&P, as they are targeting different sectors, with some crossover.
The ISM surveys are sent to companies' purchasing managers based on their contribution to US GDP, only representing the larger companies, whereas S&P's report represents companies of different sizes.
What to Expect
Fed policymakers have noted that service inflation remains persistent.
Therefore, if this index continues into 'expansion' (a reading above 50), and is also higher than expected, markets may see this as a sign that interest rates in the US need to stay higher for longer to reduce demand and employment in the services sector, which are an upside inflation risk.
This would cause potential weakness in US stocks and strength in the dollar.
However, markets are also looking for signals of a soft landing, and a healthy services sector could also indicate that the economy is less likely to fall into a recession during this tightening cycle.
US JOLTS Job Openings
The US 'Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey' Job Openings is an economic indicator published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is the first of the big 3 US employment reports this week.
It measures the number of job openings available in the United States during a specific period.
The data provides insights into the demand for labor and the overall health of the job market.
High job openings may indicate a robust labor market, while a decline may suggest economic challenges or changes in employer hiring intentions.
The JOLTS report is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and analysts for its impact on labor market dynamics and workforce trends.
When compared to the other employment reports coming out this week, it represents data one month behind the others. (This data will represent October, while ADP and NFP will represent November).
What to Expect
FOMC officials have noted numerous times that they expect to see employment come down to help reduce inflation.
Therefore, if the JOLTS report comes in higher than expected, indicating a larger demand for labor, this could signal that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer to reduce labor demand, which could cause weakness in US stocks, and strength in the dollar.
Wednesday 6th December
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change
The US ADP Employment Change is a monthly economic indicator produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody's Analytics.
It measures the estimated change in non-farm private employment in the United States, excluding government jobs and certain agricultural sectors.
The ADP report is often considered a precursor to the official government employment report (Nonfarm Payrolls) and provides insights into the health of the labor market, though it is worth noting that there is little/no correlation between the 2 reports.
A positive ADP Employment Change suggests job growth, while a negative figure indicates a decline in employment. It is widely used by analysts, policymakers, and businesses to gauge trends in employment and economic conditions.
What to Expect
If ADP comes in higher than expected, this indicates that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer than markets currently expect, as higher employment poses an upside risk to inflation.
This would be likely to cause strength in the dollar, and weakness in US stocks.
08:30 ET
US Trade Balance
The US Trade Balance is an economic indicator that measures the difference between the value of the country's exports and imports of goods and services.
If the value of exports exceeds imports, a trade surplus is indicated (a positive number), and if imports exceed exports, a trade deficit is indicated (a negative number).
The Trade Balance provides insights into the nation's economic competitiveness, global trade relationships, and the overall health of its economy.
Policymakers and economists closely monitor this indicator to assess the impact of trade on economic growth, employment, and the country's financial well-being.
What to Expect
A trade surplus (positive number) indicating more exports than imports, is good for economic growth and could indicate that the US economy is more likely to avoid a recession, whereas a negative number could indicate the opposite.
10:30 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventories report provides information on the total stockpile of crude oil held by U.S. commercial firms.
It is released every Wednesday and is a key indicator of supply and demand dynamics in the oil market.
This report is monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers to assess trends in the energy market.
What to Expect
An increase in inventories may suggest oversupply or weak demand, influencing oil prices and impacting the energy sector. Conversely, a decrease may indicate strong demand or disruptions in supply, affecting market expectations and prices.
Thursday 7th December
08:30 ET
Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims, released by the US Department of Labor, indicates the number of individuals who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time.
It serves as a real-time measure of layoffs and reflects the current state of the job market. A lower number suggests a healthier labor market.
Continued Jobless Claims represent the number of individuals who continue to receive unemployment benefits.
It provides a snapshot of ongoing unemployment trends and the duration of joblessness.
A decreasing trend in continued claims can indicate improving employment conditions.
Both indicators are monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers to gauge the dynamics of the labor market and overall economic health. Lower initial and continued jobless claims are generally associated with a robust and improving job market.
What to Expect
Compared to the other employment reports this week, this one has less weight, as it is released weekly, and the others are released monthly.
Having said that, lower-than-expected Jobless Claims indicate that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer than markets currently expect, as this shows that there is lower unemployment, which poses an upside risk to inflation.
This would be likely to cause strength in the dollar,r and weakness in US stocks.
Friday 8th December
08:30 ET
US Nonfarm Payrolls
US Nonfarm Payrolls, commonly referred to as NFP, is a key economic indicator published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on a monthly basis.
It represents the total number of paid workers in the US, excluding farm employees, government workers, and non-profit organization employees.
The NFP report provides insights into the overall health of the labor market, reflecting changes in employment levels.
A higher-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls is generally seen as a positive sign for the economy, indicating job growth and economic expansion, while a lower-than-expected increase or a decline may signal economic challenges or contraction.
The data is closely watched by policymakers, economists, and investors for its impact on financial markets and economic policy decisions.
US Unemployment Rate
The US Unemployment Rate is a widely tracked economic indicator that measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
It is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by the total labor force.
The Unemployment Rate can differ from the Nonfarm Payrolls data due to differences in their definitions and methods of measurement. While NFP represents the total number of paid workers in the US, excluding certain categories like farm and government employees, the Unemployment Rate considers the percentage of the labor force that is actively seeking but unable to find employment.
US Average Earnings YoY
US Average Earnings Year-over-Year is an economic indicator that measures the annual percentage change in the average earnings of all non-farm employees in the United States.
This data is typically derived from the monthly employment reports released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Average earnings include wages and salaries, and the YoY comparison helps assess the rate of change in workers' compensation over a one-year period.
Positive growth in Average Earnings YoY is indicative of increasing income levels, while negative growth suggests a decline in average earnings. Policymakers, economists, and investors monitor this indicator for insights into wage trends and their implications for consumer spending and inflation.
What to Expect
US NFP is the most closely watched employment indicator by traders and policymakers alike.
A higher-than-expected read indicates that employment is not slowing down, which poses an upside risk to inflation. This could cause policymakers to keep interest rates higher for longer.
This repricing of the future of US monetary policy could be likely to cause weakness in US stocks, and strength in the dollar. The inverse could also be the case.
Having said this, participants will also be looking to the average earnings data, to see if increased wages are also causing potential upside inflation risks.
10:00 ET
University Michigan Sentiment Prelim
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary Index is a widely followed economic indicator that measures the confidence and optimism of US consumers regarding the economy.
Released twice monthly by the University of Michigan, the preliminary reading provides an early estimate of consumer sentiment before the final data is published later in the month.
The index is derived from a survey that assesses consumer attitudes toward current economic conditions and expectations for the future.
What to Expect
A higher sentiment reading suggests increased confidence, which can positively influence consumer spending, a crucial component of economic activity.
Markets have been reacting somewhat to the release of the 1-year inflation expectations, and the 5-10-year inflation expectations that come out with this report as well. Higher than expected inflation expectations are likely to cause weakness in the S&P 500 and strength in the dollar, as this indicates that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer.
