Tuesday 12th December
08:30 ET
US CPI for November
The US Consumer Price Index is a key economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services.
It reflects inflation or deflation trends in the economy and is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The CPI includes a diverse range of items, such as food, clothing, rent, healthcare, and entertainment.
The percentage change in the CPI from one period to another (month-over-month or year-over-year) indicates the rate of inflation or deflation, offering insights into changes in the cost of living and purchasing power.
Policymakers, economists, and investors closely monitor CPI data to assess economic conditions, make policy decisions, and gauge potential impacts on financial markets.
What to Expect
If inflation comes in higher than expected, this could cause markets to push back their pricing for Fed rate cuts next year, which could cause weakness in US stocks and strength in the dollar. It would imply borrowing costs could stay higher for longer, which would negatively affect corporate profits, sending US stocks down. At the same time, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed-income assets would be higher, which would strengthen the dollar.
Wednesday 13th December
08:30 ET
US PPI for November
The US Producer Price Index is an economic indicator that measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.
Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the PPI reflects price movements at the wholesale or producer level. It includes various industries such as manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and services.
The PPI is essential for understanding inflationary pressures within the production process and can provide insights into potential future changes in consumer prices.
An increase in PPI may indicate rising production costs, which could potentially be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
Policymakers, economists, and businesses use PPI data to analyze inflation trends and make informed decisions.
What to Expect
PPI is seen as a leading indicator of inflation because an increase in prices for goods producers can be passed on to consumers.
If inflation comes in higher than expected, this could cause markets to push back their pricing for Fed rate cuts next year, which could cause weakness in US stocks and strength in the dollar. It would imply borrowing costs could stay higher for longer, which would negatively affect corporate profits, sending US stocks down. At the same time, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed-income assets would be higher, which would strengthen the dollar.
10:30 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The weekly Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventories report provides information on the total amount of crude oil held in storage by commercial firms in the United States. Published by the US Department of Energy, the report is released every Wednesday and is an indicator of the supply and demand dynamics in the oil market.
Changes in crude oil inventories can influence oil prices and impact the energy sector. Traders, investors, and policymakers closely monitor this report to gain insights into the current state of the oil market.
What to Expect
An increase in inventories may suggest oversupply or weak demand, which could cause weakness in oil prices, while a decrease may indicate strong demand or disruptions in supply, which may cause an increase in oil prices.
14:00 ET
US Interest Rate Decision
The US Interest Rate Decision refers to the announcement made by the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee regarding changes, if any, to the federal funds rate.
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.
The FOMC typically meets eight times a year to assess economic conditions and decide on monetary policy.
The decision to raise, lower, or maintain the interest rate is based on the committee's evaluation of factors like inflation, employment, and economic growth.
Changes in interest rates can have significant impacts on borrowing costs, spending, and investment throughout the economy, making the Interest Rate Decision a critical event for financial markets and investors.
What to Expect
Markets are expecting no change at this meeting, so instead, attention will turn to the Rate Statement and Summary of Economic Projections.
Markets are looking for any finite clues on when the Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts next year. The dot plot in the SEP will reveal the current FOMC officials forecasts for their direction of future monetary policy.
If this shows a large number of officials looking for rate cuts on, or before, the current market pricing (July), then there could be some strength in US stocks and weakness in the dollar.
Thursday 14th December
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for November
US Retail Sales is a key economic indicator that measures the total receipts of retail stores, including both goods and services, over a specific period.
The data is released monthly by the US Census Bureau and provides insights into consumer spending patterns.
Rising retail sales are generally associated with economic expansion, while declining sales may indicate economic contraction.
This indicator is used for assessing the health of the consumer-driven segment of the economy, as consumer spending is a significant driver of economic activity.
Policymakers, economists, and investors monitor retail sales data to gauge consumer confidence and overall economic trends.
What to Expect
Higher retail sales can correlate with higher overall consumer spending, which has the potential to be an upside inflation risk if it remains high for too long. In this stage in the economic cycle, this could mean a higher-than-expected retail sales read would cause some downside in US stocks, and an upside in the dollar, as participants note the upside inflation risk as a reason to keep Fed policy tighter for longer.
On the other hand, higher retail sales can show that the consumer is still n a good place, despite tightening and lowering inflation, which could point to higher chances of a 'soft landing’ in the economy.
Weekly Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims indicate the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It serves as a real-time measure of layoffs and reflects the current state of the job market.
Continuing Jobless Claims represent the number of individuals who continue to receive unemployment benefits. It offers a snapshot of ongoing unemployment trends and the duration of joblessness.
Both indicators are monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers to gauge labor market dynamics, trends in unemployment, and overall economic health.
A decrease in initial and continuing claims suggests an improving job market, while an increase may indicate economic challenges or contraction.
What to Expect
FOMC officials have noted that they would like to see some cooling in the labor market; therefore, if Jobless Claims come in higher than expected, indicating lower unemployment, this could cause strength in US stocks, and weakness in the dollar, as high employment is seen as an upside inflation risk, which could cause tighter Fed policy for longer.
Friday 15th December
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI December Prelim
The US S&P Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is an economic indicator that assesses the performance of the manufacturing sector in the United States.
It is based on a survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing businesses and measures factors such as business activity, new orders, and employment.
As a diffusion index, a PMI reading above 50 generally indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while below 50 suggests contraction.
The S&P Manufacturing PMI provides valuable insights into the health and trends of the US manufacturing industry, serving as an important indicator for analysts, policymakers, and investors.
What to Expect
The Manufacturing PMIs have been hovering on the edge of contraction and expansion, but the reports have started to shed light on the employment situation in the manufacturing sector, which is beginning to cool, and is good news for inflation risks.
A slight contraction in manufacturing could cause strength in US stocks, and weakness in the dollar, but anything more may spark recession fears.
