Tuesday 2nd January
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI
The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index reflects the health of the manufacturing sector in the United States. Published monthly by IHS Markit, the PMI is based on a survey of purchasing managers who report on various aspects of manufacturing conditions, such as new orders, production levels, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
As a diffusion index, a reading above 50 generally signals expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.
What to Expect
The question on everyone's mind is, when will the Fed cut rates? Any overly strong data may have a negative effect on stocks while the Dollar may strengthen in the face of higher for longer monetary policy.
Wednesday 3rd January
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is a gauge published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management.
This index indicates the health of the manufacturing sector in the United States.
Derived from a survey of purchasing managers, the PMI encompasses various components such as new orders, production levels, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
As a diffusion index, a reading above 50 typically signifies expansion in the manufacturing industry, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.
What to Expect
Just like with the S&P Manufacturing PMI, any overly strong data may have a negative effect on stocks, while the Dollar may strengthen in the face of higher for longer monetary policy.
US JOLTS Job Openings
The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is a monthly report provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, offering insights into job openings, hires, and separations, providing a comprehensive view of employment trends.
Job openings indicate demand for labor, while hires represent the addition of new employees to the workforce, and separations encompass various forms of job termination, including quits and layoffs.
What to Expect
Although the Fed wants to maintain strong employment as a part of it’s dual mandate, a hot reading could suggest that the economy is picking up.
14:00 ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes are detailed transcripts released three weeks after each committee meeting of the Federal Reserve.
These minutes provide an in-depth account of the discussions, deliberations, and decisions made by FOMC participants, including their assessments of economic conditions, risks, and policy options.
Analysts closely analyze the minutes for clues about the committee's outlook on inflation, employment, and potential future policy actions, making them a key resource for understanding the central bank's approach to achieving its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
What to Expect
The release of FOMC meeting minutes can influence financial markets and shape expectations about the direction of interest rates and other monetary policy measures.
Thursday 4th January
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change
The ADP Employment Report, compiled by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody's Analytics, is a monthly snapshot of the U.S. labor market, offering an estimate of the change in non-farm private employment. Derived from payroll data provided by ADP, a major human capital management solutions provider, the report excludes government and agricultural employment to focus on the private sector. The ADP figures are released ahead of the official non-farm payroll data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, providing an early indication of employment trends.
What to Expect
The Fed's dual mandate includes maintaining high employment, but a hot reading may indicate that the economy is strengthening.
08:30 ET
Weekly Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims indicate the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It serves as a real-time measure of layoffs and reflects the current state of the job market.
Continuing Jobless Claims represent the number of individuals who continue to receive unemployment benefits. It offers a snapshot of ongoing unemployment trends and the duration of joblessness.
Both indicators are monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers to gauge labor market dynamics, trends in unemployment, and overall economic health.
A decrease in initial and continuing claims suggests an improving job market, while an increase may indicate economic challenges or contraction.
What to Expect
If Jobless Claims come in higher than expected, indicating lower unemployment, this could cause strength in US stocks, and weakness in the dollar, as high employment is seen as an upside inflation risk, which could cause tighter Fed policy for longer.
In the latest comments from Powell and other FOMC officials, they have also noted a refocus back onto the ‘dual mandate’, (which includes employment), so while a slight cooling in the employment situation may be seen as reinforcing dovish Fed bets, too much could go against the other element of the Fed’s dual mandate, and increase recession fears.
However, as a weekly release that is occurring in the same week as the highly watched US Nonfarm Payrolls report, it is unlikely to have a meaningful, lasting impact on the markets.
11:00 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Weekly Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventories is a report that provides information on the total amount of crude oil held in storage by commercial firms in the United States.
Published by the US Department of Energy on a weekly basis, this report is an indicator of the supply and demand dynamics in the oil market.
Changes in crude oil inventories can influence oil prices and impact the energy sector.
What to Expect
An increase in inventories may suggest oversupply or weak demand, causing the potential for downward pressure on oil prices, while a decrease may indicate strong demand or disruptions in supply, adding the potential for an upside move in oil.
Traders, investors, and policymakers closely monitor this report to gain insights into the current state of the oil market and potential price movements.
Friday 5th January
08:30 ET
US Nonfarm Payrolls
US Nonfarm Payrolls, commonly referred to as NFP, is a key economic indicator published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on a monthly basis.
It represents the total number of paid workers in the US, excluding farm employees, government workers, and non-profit organization employees.
The NFP report provides insights into the overall health of the labor market, reflecting changes in employment levels.
The data is closely watched by policymakers, economists, and investors for its impact on financial markets and economic policy decisions.
US Unemployment Rate
The US Unemployment Rate is a widely tracked economic indicator that measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
It is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by the total labor force.
The Unemployment Rate can differ from the Nonfarm Payrolls data due to differences in their definitions and methods of measurement. While NFP represents the total number of paid workers in the US, excluding certain categories like farm and government employees, the Unemployment Rate considers the percentage of the labor force that is actively seeking but unable to find employment.
US Average Earnings YoY
US Average Earnings Year-over-Year is an economic indicator that measures the annual percentage change in the average earnings of all non-farm employees in the United States.
This data is typically derived from the monthly employment reports released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Average earnings include wages and salaries, and the YoY comparison helps assess the rate of change in workers' compensation over a one-year period.
Positive growth in Average Earnings YoY is indicative of increasing income levels, while negative growth suggests a decline in average earnings. Policymakers, economists, and investors monitor this indicator for insights into wage trends and their implications for consumer spending and inflation.
What to Expect
US NFP is the most closely watched employment indicator by traders and policymakers alike.
A higher-than-expected read indicates that employment is not slowing down, which poses an upside risk to inflation. This could cause policymakers to keep interest rates higher for longer.
This repricing of the future of US monetary policy could be likely to cause weakness in US stocks, and strength in the dollar. The inverse could also be the case.
Having said this, participants will also be looking to the average earnings data, to see if increased wages are also causing potential upside inflation risks.
In the latest comments from Powell and other FOMC officials, they have also noted a refocus back onto the ‘dual mandate’, (which includes employment), so while a slight cooling in the employment situation may be seen as reinforcing dovish Fed bets, too much could go against the other element of the Fed’s dual mandate, and increase recession fears.
10:00 ET
US Factory Orders
US Factory Orders is an economic indicator that measures the total dollar value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods.
Published by the US Census Bureau, it provides insights into the demand for goods produced by the manufacturing sector.
Factory orders include items such as machinery, vehicles, and consumer products.
What to Expect
While unlikely to move the markets on its own, changes in factory orders can indicate shifts in economic activity and are monitored for trends in manufacturing and overall economic health.
An increase in factory orders may suggest economic expansion, while a decline may signal contraction or decreased business confidence.
Policymakers, economists, and investors use this data to assess the strength of the manufacturing sector and potential implications for the broader economy.
US ISM Services PMI
The US Institute for Supply Management Services Purchasing Managers' Index is a widely followed economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector in the United States.
Published by the ISM, the index is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector (meaning its reach expands slightly outside of just the services sector) and assesses factors such as business activity, new orders, and employment.
As a diffusion index, a PMI reading above 50 generally indicates expansion in the services sector, while below 50 suggests contraction.
What to Expect
The ISM Services PMI provides valuable insights into the health and trends of the US services industry, a significant component of the overall economy.
Analysts, policymakers, and investors monitor this indicator for its implications on economic growth and business activity.
The Fed has noted that they would like to see further cooling in the services sector, as it still poses a potential upside inflation risk. This tells us that US stocks could react positively to a lower-than-expected Services PMI, as it would indicate that the Fed may be able to cut interest rates sooner than markets anticipate.
